Dallas Stars vs Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction 10/10/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

The Dallas Stars and the Pittsburgh Penguins meet Saturday in NHL action from the PPG Paints Arena. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Dallas Stars vs. Pittsburgh Penguins prediction.

Dallas Stars Recap

The Dallas Stars come into this game looking to add on to their 4-0 win over Buffalo last time out to sit at 2-2 this season. After this game, the Stars will head home for a game against the Colorado Avalanche.

Stars Pick Up Back-To-Back Wins

Mikko Rantanen leads the Dallas Stars through four games this season with a team-high 6 points, pacing the club in both goals and assists with 2 and 4, respectively. Wyatt Johnston sits in second with 4 points, matching Rantanen’s team-high 4 assists. Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson sit tied at 3 points each, with Robertson sharing the team lead in goals with 2 alongside Rantanen and Miro Heiskanen. Sam Steel, Jamie Benn, and Heiskanen have each recorded 2 points, while Radek Faksa, Oskar Back, Nils Lundkvist, Thomas Harley, and Joel Kiviranta have each added a point to round out Dallas’s scoring. In net, Jake Oettinger has been lights out with a 2-1-0 record, posting a stellar 0.67 GAA and a .967 save percentage after stopping 59 of 61 shots, while Casey DeSmith took the loss in his lone start despite posting a 2.06 GAA and a .923 save percentage after stopping 24 of 26 shots for the Stars up to this point in the season.

Pittsburgh Penguins Recap

The Pittsburgh Penguins come into this game looking to shake off a 3-2 shootout loss at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets last time out to sit at 2-2-1 this season. After this game, the Penguins will head on the road for a game against the Chicago Blackhawks.

Penguins Lose 3 In A Row

Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson, Samuel Girard, and Tommy Novak sit tied atop the Pittsburgh Penguins scoring leaderboard through five games with 5 points each, with Malkin and Novak co-leading the squad with 3 goals each alongside Nick Robertson, while Karlsson paces the club with 5 assists. Ben Kindel, Declan Carlile, and Kaedan Korczak sit right behind them with 4 points apiece. Robertson, Filip Hallander, Hendrix Lapierre, and Kris Letang have each recorded 3 points, while Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Egor Chinakhov, and Ville Koivunen have each added 2 points to round out Pittsburgh’s scoring leaders. In net, Arturs Silovs holds a 2-1-0 record with a 3.38 GAA and an .859 save percentage after stopping 61 of 71 shots, while Sergei Murashov sits at 0-1-1 with a 2.45 GAA and a .938 save percentage after stopping 75 of 80 shots for the Penguins up to this point in the season.

Dallas Stars @ Pittsburgh Penguins Betting Trends: October 10, 2026

Why the Pittsburgh Penguins will win

• The Stars have lost five of their last six games as road favorites against Metropolitan Division opponents.
• The underdogs have won four of the Penguins’ last five games at PPG Paints Arena.
• The Stars have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last seven games as favorites against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Penguins have covered the puck line in each of their last seven games as home underdogs following a shootout loss.
• The Penguins have won the second period in nine of their last 10 games against Western Conference opponents when tied after the first period.

Why the Dallas Stars will win

• The Penguins have lost eight of their last nine home games against opponents on a winning streak.
• The Stars have won six of their last seven games against the Penguins.
• The road team has covered the puck line in seven of the last eight games between the Stars and Penguins.
• The Penguins have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last five games against Central Division opponents.
• The Penguins have lost the second period in each of their last six night games at PPG Paints Arena when trailing after the first period.

Total Goals Facts

• Nine of the Penguins’ last 10 games against Central Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Each of the Stars’ last four games have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• Eight of the last nine Saturday games at PPG Paints Arena have gone OVER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 3′ market has hit in 20 of the Penguins’ last 21 games after coming off overtime.
• The ‘Over 2.5 Goals Period 1′ market has hit in each of the Stars’ last three games as favorites against opponents on a losing streak.

Pittsburgh Penguins Player Prop Facts

• Tommy Novak has scored a goal in five of his last six appearances against the Stars.
• Erik Karlsson has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Penguins’ last eight games as home underdogs against Central Division opponents.
• Samuel Girard has recorded 20 career assists against the Stars – most against any opponent (including playoffs).

Dallas Stars Player Prop Facts

• Jason Robertson has scored at least one goal in nine of the Stars’ last 12 games as favorites.
• Mikko Rantanen has recorded at least one assist in seven of the Stars’ last eight road games.
• Miro Heiskanen ranks T3rd in the league for Game Winning Goals (1) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank T3rd in the league in penalty kill percentage this season (92.86%).
• The Pittsburgh Penguins rank T5th in the league for goals per game this season (4.00).
• The Dallas Stars rank 1st in the league for goals against per game this season (1.50).
• The Dallas Stars rank 1st in the league in save percentage this season (.954).

Dallas Stars vs. Pittsburgh Penguins Prediction

I’m on the Stars here. I get that the Penguins had a nice start out of the gate but the problem for them is that the strong start has worn off and the Penguins are getting lit up like a Christmas tree as of late. The Stars had their season-opening blip against St. Louis, but the Stars look in prime defensive form right now and don’t look like a team I’m interested in stepping in front of at this point. Give me Dallas.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Dallas -150