Boston Bruins vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction 2/1/2026 Today’s NHL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Bruins vs Lightning Prediction for this NHL game on Sunday, February 1st. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NHL matchup.

Tampa Bay Lightning Preview

The Lightning have 72 points this season with a 34-14-4 record, and are 28-24 ATS and 24-25 in over/under. They have a 15-9-0 home record and a 19-5-4 road record and are sitting 1st in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 4-1 home win over the Jets, and their previous three games were a 2-0 home win over the Mammoth, a 8-5 road loss to the Blue Jackets, and a 2-1 road shootout win over the Blackhawks.

Offensively, the Lightning are averaging 3.46 goals per game and are scoring 21.3% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 2.48 goals per game and are killing 84.6% of their opponent’s power plays.

Nikita Kucherov leads the Lightning with 82 points and 27 goals, adding a team-high 55 assists. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the starting goalie for the Lightning, and he has a 24-7-3 record, with 2.04 GAA and .921 SV%. Jonas Johansson is the backup goalie and he has a 10-7-1 record, with 2.92 GAA and .890 SV%.

Boston Bruins Preview

The Bruins have 67 points this season with a 32-20-3 record, and are 37-18 ATS and 31-23 in over/under. They have a 21-8-1 home record and a 11-12-2 road record and are sitting 5th in the Atlantic Division. They are coming off a 6-3 home win over the Flyers, and their previous three games were a 3-2 home overtime win over the Predators, a 4-3 road overtime loss to the Rangers, and a 4-3 home win over the Canadiens.

Offensively, the Bruins are averaging 3.35 goals per game and are scoring 26.8% of their power play opportunities. Defensively, they are allowing 3.09 goals per game and are killing 77.6% of their opponent’s power plays.

David Pastrnak leads the Bruins with 69 points and 47 assists, while Morgan Geekie leads the team in goals with 30. Jeremy Swayman is the starting goalie for the Bruins, and he has a 22-12-2 record, with 2.87 GAA and .904 SV%. Joonas Korpisalo is the backup goalie and he has a 10-8-1 record, with 3.12 GAA and .895 SV%.

Boston Bruins @ Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Trends: February 1, 2026

Why the Tampa Bay Lightning will win

• The Lightning have won each of their last 10 games following a home win.
• The Bruins have lost eight of their last 10 road games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The home team has covered the puck line in seven of the Lightning’s last eight games.
• The Bruins have failed to cover the puck line in five of their last six road games following a win.
• The Lightning have won the third period in each of their last six games when leading after the second period.

Why the Boston Bruins will win

• The Lightning have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Bruins have won three of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Lightning have failed to cover the puck line in each of their last six home games against Atlantic Division opponents.
• The Bruins have covered the puck line in four of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Bruins have won the third period in nine of their last 10 games as road underdogs when leading after the second period.

Total Goals Facts

• Each of the Bruins’ last 11 games as road underdogs following a win have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Nine of the Lightning’s last 10 home games against Atlantic Division opponents have gone OVER the total goals line.
• Four of the last five night games between teams from the same division have gone UNDER the total goals line.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2′ market has hit in each of the Bruins’ last nine games as underdogs against opponents on a winning streak.
• The ‘Over 1.5 Goals Period 2’ market has hit in eight of the Lightning’s last nine home games.

Tampa Bay Lightning Player Prop Facts

• Nikita Kucherov has scored at least one goal in each of the Lightning’s last seven Sunday night games.
• Nikita Kucherov has recorded at least one assist in each of the Lightning’s last four home games.
• Nikita Kucherov ranks T1st in the league for multi-assist games (16) this season.

Boston Bruins Player Prop Facts

• David Pastrnak has scored at least one goal in five of his last six appearances with the Bruins as underdogs against Atlantic Division opponents.
• Charlie McAvoy has recorded at least one assist in each of the Bruins’ last four games.
• Morgan Geekie ranks T1st amongst qualified players for shooting percentage (24.2%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals per game this season (3.46).
• The Tampa Bay Lightning rank 2nd in the league for goals against per game this season (2.48).
• The Boston Bruins rank 4th in the league in power play percentage this season (26.75%).
• The Boston Bruins rank 8th in the league for goals per game this season (3.35).

Bruins vs Lightning Prediction

In their previous meeting earlier this season, the Lightning won 4-3 on the road and are 5-2 in their last 7 meetings against the Bruins.

In this Bruins vs Lightning Prediction, the Lightning are coming as -220 home favorites. The Lightning have been the better team and are tied with the Hurricanes on the top of the Eastern Conference, but getting them as -220 home favorites against a team that has just two wins less and has been red-hot lately is a bit too much. The Lightning have been red-hot with an 8-2 record in their last 10 games, but so are the Bruins, with an 8-2 record in their last 10 as well, but they have been significantly weaker on the road this season. The Bruins are the third-best team against the spread this season and at this price, I just have to take them by +1.5 goals and lay the juice. Take the Bruins on the puckline in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Boston Bruins +1.5