New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 10/5/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Patriots vs Bills Prediction for this NFL Week 5 game on Sunday, October 5th at the Highmark Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Buffalo Bills Preview

Buffalo has a 4-0 record this season and is sitting first in the AFC East. They are 2-2 ATS, 3-1 in Over/Under and have a 1-0 away record and 3-0 home record. The Bills are coming off a 31-19 home win over New Orleans and are playing the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers next.

Offensively, the Bills average 33.3 points per game, which ranks 2nd in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 22.5 points per game, which is 17th. Buffalo averages 404.0 total yards per game, with 163.5 rushing yards and 240.5 passing yards per game. They allow 290 total yards per game, with 164.3 rushing and 125.8 passing yards per game.

Josh Allen leads the Bills with 962 passing yards and 70.2% completed passes. James Cook leads the team in rushing yards, with 401, while Keon Coleman has a team-high 17 caught passes for 203 receiving yards, and has one touchdown. Defensively, Terrel Bernard has a team-high 20 total tackles, 13 of them solo. Joey Bosa leads the Bills in sacks, with 2, while Cole Bishop has one interception.

New England Patriots Preview

New England has a 2-2 record this season and are sitting second in the AFC East. They are 2-2-0 ATS, 2-2-0 in Over/Under and have a 1-0 away record and 1-2-0 home record. The Patriots are coming off a 42-13 home win over Carolina and are playing the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans next.

Offensively, the Patriots average 25.5 points per game, which ranks 10th in the NFL. Defensively, they allow 20.3 points per game, which is 10th. New England averages 336.3 total yards per game, with 101.3 rushing yards and 235 passing yards per game. They allow 319 total yards per game, with 77.5 rushing and 241.5 passing yards per game.

Drake Maye leads the Patriots with 988 passing yards and 74.0% completed passes. Rhamondre Stevenson leads the team in rushing yards, with 125, while Hunter Henry has a team-high 19 caught passes for 213 receiving yards, and has 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Robert Spillane has a team-high 31 total tackles, 19 of them solo. Harold Landry leads the Patriots in sacks, with 3.5, while Jaylinn Hawkins has one interception.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won each of their last 13 home games.
• The Patriots have lost each of their last 12 games following a win.
• The Bills have covered the spread in four of their last five home games against AFC opponents.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games following a win.
• The Bills have won the first quarter in seven of their last eight Week 5 games at Highmark Stadium.
• The Patriots have lost the first half in each of their last eight games as underdogs following a win.
• The Bills have scored the first touchdown in each of their last three Sunday games played on the East Coast.

Why the New England Patriots will win

• The Patriots have won 10 of their last 11 October games against the Bills.
• The Bills have lost nine of their last 10 Week 5 games against AFC East opponents.
• The Patriots have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Bills.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five home games against AFC East opponents.
• The Bills have lost the first quarter in each of their last four October games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Patriots have won the first half in 11 of their last 12 road games against the Bills following a home win.
• The Patriots have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four games against the Bills.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Bills’ last four home games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the last seven games between AFC East teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the Patriots’ last six games in October have gone OVER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bills’ last nine games played as favorites on the East Coast.
• Josh Allen has scored two or more touchdowns in four of the Bills’ last five games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Josh Allen has recorded 248+ passing yards in 12 of the Bills’ last 14 October games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• James Cook has recorded 102+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last five games.
• Josh Palmer has recorded 30+ receiving yards in 14 of his last 16 appearances against division opponents.
• James Cook has recorded 108+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last four games as favorites.
• Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in seven of the Bills’ last eight games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Heading into Week 5, James Cook ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (5) this season.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Stefon Diggs has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last five appearances with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Drake Maye has recorded 222+ passing yards in each of the Patriots’ last three road games against AFC East opponents.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 40+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 17 October appearances against AFC opponents.
• Stefon Diggs has recorded 40+ receiving yards in each of his last 17 October appearances against AFC opponents.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has recorded 34+ rushing yards in each of his five previous regular season appearances against the Bills.
• Drake Maye has recorded 28+ completions in each of the Patriots’ last four games following a win.
• Heading into Week 5, Antonio Gibson is the only player in the NFL to have a kick return touchdown this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Bills – one different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
• Heading into Week 5, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per game (163.5) this season.
• Patriots – four different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
• Patriots – four different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.

Patriots vs Bills Prediction

Both teams were tied 1-1 wins in their two meetings last season, with each one winning at home. The Bills won by 24-21 and the Patriots by 23-16. The Bills are 6-2 in their last 8 meetings against the Patriots and have won their last three meetings in Buffalo, but the Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings.

In this Patriots vs Bills Prediction, the Bills are coming as -7.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 49.5 points. The Bills have been perfect this season, and they have the second-best offense in the league. They are playing their third straight game at home, and last time they lost at home to the Patriots was back in 2021. The value here lies with the home favorite, so take the Buffalo Bills and lay the -7.5 points at home.