Las Vegas Raiders vs Washington Commanders Prediction 9/21/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Raiders vs Commanders Prediction for this NFL Week 3 game on Sunday, September 21st at the Northwest Stadium. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Washington Commanders Preview

Washington has a 1-1 record this season and are coming off a 18-27 road defeat in Green Bay. Offensively, they average 19.5 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the league. Defensively, they allow 16.5 points per game, which ranks 5th. Washington averages 331 total yards per game, with 135.5 rushing yards and 195.5 passing yards per game. They allow 317.5 total yards per game, 104.5 of them rushing and 213 passing yards per game.

Jayden Daniels leads the Commanders with 43/72 completed passes and 433 total passing yards. He also adds 85 rushing yards. Jacory Croskey-Merritt leads the team in rushing yards, with 99 and 1 touchdown, while Jayden Daniels adds 85 rushing yards. Deebo Samuel has a team-high 14 caught passes for a team-high 121 receiving yards, and has 1 touchdown. Zach Ertz has caught 9 passes for 90 yards, and two touchdowns.

Defensively, Bobby Wagner has a team-high 21 total tackles, 8 of them solo. Dorance Armstrong Jr. leads the Commanders in sacks, with two.

Las Vegas Raiders Preview

Las Vegas has a 1-1 record this season and are coming off a 9-20 home defeat by the Rams. Offensively, the Raiders average 14.5 points per game, which ranks 31st in the league. Defensively, they allow 16.5 points per game, which ranks 5th. Las Vegas averages 303.5 total yards per game, with 62 rushing yards and 241.5 passing yards per game. They allow 326.5 total yards per game, 70.5 of them rushing and 256 passing yards per game.

Geno Smith leads the Raiders with 48/77 completed passes and 542 total passing yards. He also adds 30 rushing yards. Ashton Jeanty leads the team in rushing yards, with 81 and 1 touchdown, while Geno Smith adds 30 rushing yards. Jakobi Meyers has a team-high 14 caught passes for a team-high 165 receiving yards. Brock Bowers has caught 10 passes for 141 yards.

Defensively, Devin White has a team-high 19 total tackles, 14 of them solo. Jonah Laulu leads the Raiders in sacks, with 3, while Isaiah Pola-Mao has one interception.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Washington Commanders Betting Trends: Week 3

Why the Washington Commanders will win

• The Raiders have lost each of their last 11 games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• The Commanders have won seven of their last eight Sunday games.
• The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight Week 3 games.
• The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last five games played on the East Coast.
• The Commanders have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games as favorites.
• The Raiders have lost the first half in each of their last 13 games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The home team has won the first quarter in each of the Commanders’ last six games.

Why the Las Vegas Raiders will win

• The Commanders have lost each of their last four games as home favorites when playing with a rest advantage.
• The underdogs have won each of the Raiders’ last three Week 3 games.
• The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Raiders have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as road underdogs when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Commanders have lost the first half in eight of their last nine September games against AFC West opponents.
• The Raiders have won the first quarter in four of their last five Week 3 games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Commanders’ last seven games against AFC opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Nine of the Raiders’ last 10 games as underdogs following a home loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the last six Sunday games at Northwest Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Washington Commanders Player Prop Facts

• Deebo Samuel has recorded 54+ receiving yards in each of his last eight September appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Jayden Daniels has recorded 233+ passing yards in four of the Commanders’ last five games.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 11+ rushing yards in each of his eight previous appearances with his team as a favorite on the East Coast.
• Deebo Samuel has recorded 63+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 10 September appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Zach Ertz has scored a touchdown in each of the Commanders’ last five games following a loss.
• Jayden Daniels has recorded 22+ completions in 10 of the Commanders’ last 12 games.
• Heading into Week 3, Will Harris ranks T2nd in the league for forced fumbles (1) this season.

Las Vegas Raiders Player Prop Facts

• Tre Tucker has recorded 36+ receiving yards in six of the Raiders’ last seven games following a home loss.
• Geno Smith has recorded 289+ passing yards in each of his five previous Week 3 appearances.
• Geno Smith has recorded 14+ rushing yards in six of his last seven road appearances against NFC opponents.
• Tre Tucker has recorded 44+ rushing and receiving yards in four of the Raiders’ last five games as underdogs following a home loss.
• Tre Tucker has scored a touchdown in three of the Raiders’ last four road games.
• Geno Smith has recorded 23+ completions in each of his last six September appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Heading into Week 3, Ashton Jeanty ranks 1st in the NFL in broken tackles (7) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Commanders – two different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Commanders – two different players have recorded 60+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Raiders – two different players have recorded 80+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.
• Raiders – two different players have recorded 90+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 3.

Raiders vs Commanders Prediction

In their most recent meeting back in 2021, Washington won 17-15 on the road, covering the spread. The Commanders have won all four meetings against the Raiders, including their only meeting in Washington, and have covered the spread in all four meetings. Their last three meetings have gone under the point total. 

In this Raiders vs Commanders Prediction, the Commanders are coming as -3.5-point home favorites, with the total set at 44 points. Both teams are coming off their first defeats of the season, with Washington having won their only home game this season, and Las Vegas having won their only road game. Both teams are a perfect 4-0 to the under in their four games this season combined, as they are both tied for the 5th-best defense in the league, allowing 16.5 points per game. Both teams are also inefficient offensively, scoring 34 points per game combined, and I expect a low-scoring affair in this matchup. Take the under 44 points in this one.