Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction 10/6/2025 Today’s NFL Picks

The Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars meet Monday in NFL action at EverBank Stadium. Here’s a Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction. This article will include a Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Giants and Ravens, and they play the Lions next. The Kansas City Chiefs have lost 3 of their last 5 regular season games. Patrick Mahomes is completing 61.3 percent of his passes for 939 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Hollywood Brown and Travis Kelce have combined for 391 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns, while Tyquan Thornton has 10 receptions.

The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 110.5 yards per contest, and Patrick Mahomes leads the way with 130 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 19 points and 312.8 yards per game. Nick Bolton leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 34 tackles, George Karlaftis has 3 sacks and Chris Roland-Wallace has 1 interception.

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Texans and 49ers, and they play the Seahawks next. The Jacksonville Jaguars have won 4 of their last 6 games. Trevor Lawrence is completing 58.3 percent of his passes for 845 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Brenton Strange and Brian Thomas Jr. have combined for 346 receiving yards on 31 catches, while Travis Hunter has 13 receptions.

The Jacksonville Jaguars ground game is averaging 144 yards per contest, and Travis Etienne Jr. leads the way with 394 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Jacksonville is allowing 18 points and 316.3 yards per game. Foyesade Oluokun leads the Jacksonville Jaguars with 30 tackles, Arik Armstead has 2.5 sacks and Devin Lloyd has 3 interceptions.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Jacksonville Jaguars will win

• The Chiefs have lost three of their last four Week 5 games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The home team has won six of the Jaguars’ last seven games.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four October games as road favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Jaguars have covered the spread in five of their last six home games.
• The Chiefs have lost the first half in each of their last three October games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• The Jaguars have won the first quarter in each of their last two October games as underdogs against AFC opponents.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 10 games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• The Jaguars have lost each of their last six games against AFC West opponents on a winning streak.
• The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five October games against AFC West opponents.
• The road team has covered the spread in five of the Chiefs’ last six Week 5 games.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in seven of their last eight games as favorites against AFC opponents.
• The Jaguars have lost the first quarter in three of their last four October games against AFC opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Jaguars’ last five games as underdogs following a win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the Chiefs’ last seven games in October have gone UNDER the total points line.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

• Brian Thomas has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Jaguars’ last five home games.
• Brian Thomas has recorded 76+ receiving yards in seven of the Jaguars’ last eight games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Travis Etienne has recorded 49+ rushing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last four home games.
• Travis Etienne has recorded 72+ rushing and receiving yards in nine of his last 11 October appearances.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 234+ passing yards in six of his last seven appearances following a win.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last six appearances with the Jaguars as underdogs against AFC West opponents.
• Heading into Week 5, Travis Etienne ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Carry (6.1) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC South opponents.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 272+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last seven Week 5 games.
• JuJu Smith-Schuster has recorded 19+ receiving yards in each of his seven previous road appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 46+ rushing yards in each of his last eight October appearances with the Chiefs as favorites.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 63+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his nine previous October appearances with the Chiefs as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Patrick Mahomes has recorded 26+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last five regular season games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Heading into Week 5, Harrison Butker ranks T2nd in the NFL in made field goals (10) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 5, the Jaguars rank 1st in the NFL in interceptions (9) this season.
• Heading into Week 5, the Jaguars rank 1st in the NFL in turnover differential (+9) this season.
• Heading into Week 5, the Chiefs rank T2nd in the NFL in H2 win percentage (75.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 5, the Chiefs rank T2nd in the NFL in average point differential in second quarters this season (+5.2).

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction

The Jaguars are off to a fine start through 4 games with an improved defense and an offense that’s running the ball at a high level. The Jags will be up for this game as it’s a statement matchup. However, it feels like oddsmakers aren’t that high on the Chiefs, but they’ve shown flashes lately and should’ve turned heads against the Ravens. Mahomes looks like an MVP candidate through 4 games, and the Chiefs’ defense is top-10 in scoring defense and against the pass. I’d argue this line is soft, as I like what the Chiefs have done recently, and I’m still not there with the Jaguars. I’ll lay the field goal with the road team.