Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction 11/15/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction

Atlanta comes into this matchup after losing four of their last five games and they have allowed at least 30 points in three of those four losses. The Falcons are 1-4 at home this year, while the Chiefs are 2-2 on the road. Kansas City has won three of their last five games, but they have lost two road games in a row. The Chiefs are dealing with a minor injury to Mahomes, but it sounds like he is going to be fine. I think we are going to see plenty of scoring here, so I like the over in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

The Kansas City Chiefs are 6-2 this year after they defeated the Jets by a score of 35-12 in their last game. Kansas City led 14-12 at halftime and they outscored New York 21-0 in the second half for the blowout win. The Chiefs out gained New York by a total of 391-229, went 6-11 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Patrick Mahomes threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns, while Travis Kelce caught four passes for 72 yards. Kenneth Walker III rushed 18 times for 102 yards and one score in the win.

Prior to that game, Kansas City lost to the Broncos by a score of 28-24 and the Seahawks by a score of 20-3. The Chiefs have scored 25.3 points per game with 246.4 passing yards and 137.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 17.9 points against per game this season. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2,037 yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions, while Travis Kelce has caught 33 passes for 482 yards and two scores. Kenneth Walker III has rushed 159 times for 872 yards and seven touchdowns this year.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Atlanta Falcons are 3-6 this season after they lost to the Bengals by a score of 34-17 in their last game. Atlanta led 10-7 after the first quarter, but they trailed 24-10 at halftime and only scored seven points in the second half in the loss. The Falcons were out gained by a total of 388-319, went 5-10 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Michael Penix Jr threw for 162 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Drake London caught five passes for 68 yards. Bijan Robinson rushed 19 times for 100 yards and one touchdown in the loss.

Prior to that game, Atlanta lost to the Buccaneers by a score of 16-0, but did defeat the 49ers by a score of 29-20 before that. The Falcons have scored 20.9 points per game with 185.4 passing yards and 137.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.8 points against per game this season. Michael Penix Jr has thrown for 1,444 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions, while Drake London has 44 receptions for 692 yards and one score. Bijan Robinson has rushed 169 times for 880 yards and five touchdowns this season.

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

• The Chiefs have lost five of their last six games as favorites without Jalen Royals.
• The home team has won each of the Chiefs’ last four games.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games without Jalen Royals.
• The home team has covered the spread in nine of the Chiefs’ last 11 games.
• The Chiefs have lost the first half in four of their last five road games following a win.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Falcons have lost each of their last seven games against AFC opponents.
• The Chiefs have won each of their last six day games against NFC South opponents.
• The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• The road team has covered the spread in eight of the Chiefs’ last 10 Week 10 games.
• The Falcons have lost the first quarter in four of their last five Sunday day games.
• The Chiefs have won the first half in eight of their last nine November games as favorites against NFC opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Falcons’ last six day games against AFC West opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Seven of the Chiefs’ last eight games as favorites without Jalen Royals have gone UNDER the total points line.

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Pitts has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Falcons’ last three games at Mercedes-Benz Stadium against teams that held a winning record.
• Khalil Herbert has recorded 23+ rushing and receiving yards in four of his five previous appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Michael Penix Jr. has recorded 221+ passing yards in three of his last four appearances following a home loss.
• Khalil Herbert has recorded 23+ rushing yards in four of his five previous appearances against AFC West opponents.
• Austin Hooper has recorded 11+ receiving yards in each of his last eight appearances with his team as an underdog against AFC West opponents.
• Heading into Week 10, Michael Penix Jr. has thrown the equal-most interceptions in a single game this season (4 vs Buccaneers, Week 8).

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Josh Downs has scored a touchdown in three of his last four November road appearances.
• Kenneth Walker III has scored two or more touchdowns in four of the Chiefs’ last five day games.
• Kenneth Walker III has recorded 102+ rushing yards in six of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Noah Gray has recorded 11+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last six day games.
• Kenneth Walker III has recorded 139+ rushing and receiving yards in three of the Chiefs’ last four games as favorites.
• Heading into Week 10, Kenneth Walker III ranks T1st in the NFL in broken tackles (16) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 10, the Falcons have conceded the lowest score in a single game this season (0-points vs Tampa Bay).
• Heading into Week 10, the Falcons have averaged just 8.5 points over their last two games – fewest in the league over that span.
• Heading into Week 10, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in average point differential in third quarters this season (+3.6).
• Heading into Week 10, the Chiefs rank 1st in the NFL in average points against in third quarters this season (1.5).

Positive Trends

As you can see in the trends above, we have zero trends pointing to the over, but I am still going with it here. Atlanta’s defense has been pretty bad this season and they will have a huge task trying to contain the KC passing attack + Kenneth Walker on the ground. On the other side, Atlanta has plenty of weapons and they are at home. Take the over here.

David Racey's Pick: Over 46.5