Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers Prediction 10/11/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Bears vs Packers Prediction for this NFL Week 4 game on Sunday, October 11th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Green Bay Packers Preview

The Green Bay Packers have a 2-2 record this season are sitting on the 3rd place of the NFC North. They are coming off a 17-14 away win against the Buccaneers and will face the Bears, the Cowboys and the Lions next.

Offensively, the Packers average 18.3 points per game, ranking 28th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 26.3 points per game, which is 23rd. Green Bay averages 307.3 total yards per game (249.3 passing and 58 rushing), while allowing 324.3 total yards per game (139.3 rushing and 185 passing).

Jordan Love leads the Packers with 1041 passing yards with 56.5% completed passes and eight touchdowns. MarShawn Lloyd leads the team in rushing yards with 81, while Christian Watson has 20 receptions for a team-high 331 receiving yards. Defensively, Evan Williams has a team-high 34 total tackles (20 of them solo), while Edgerrin Cooper leads the team in sacks, with 3.

Chicago Bears Preview

The Chicago Bears have a 3-1 record this season are sitting on the 2nd place of the NFC North. They are coming off a 23-12 home win against the Jets and will face the Packers, the Falcons and the Patriots next.

Offensively, the Bears average 28 points per game, ranking 9th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 16.3 points per game, which is 4th. Chicago averages 429 total yards per game (232.8 passing and 196.3 rushing), while allowing 282.3 total yards per game (102.5 rushing and 179.8 passing).

Caleb Williams leads the Bears with 407 passing yards with 65.5% completed passes and two touchdowns. Kyle Monangai leads the team in rushing yards with 324, while Rome Odunze has 14 receptions for a team-high 233 receiving yards. Defensively, Dillon Thieneman has a team-high 30 total tackles (15 of them solo), while Dayo Odeyingbo leads the team in sacks, with 3.

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Betting Trends: Week 5

Why the Green Bay Packers will win

• The Packers have won each of their last eight games in October.
• The Bears have lost each of their last seven games at Lambeau Field following a win.
• The Bears have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games at Lambeau Field following a win.
• The Packers have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as underdogs without Jordan Love.
• The Packers have scored the first touchdown in eight of their last nine games against NFC opponents.
• The Bears have lost the first half in each of their last six games at Lambeau Field following a win.
• The Packers have won the first quarter in eight of their last nine games as underdogs following a win.

Why the Chicago Bears will win

• The Bears have won each of their last seven games as slight favorites (<-3.5 points).
• The Packers have lost each of their last five games without MarShawn Lloyd.
• The Packers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games without MarShawn Lloyd.
• The Bears have covered the spread in each of their last five Week 5 games.
• The Bears have won the first quarter in each of their last four games in October.
• The Bears have scored the first touchdown in nine of their last 12 games as favorites following a win.
• The Bears have won the first half in each of their last five October games as favorites.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Bears’ last 10 Sunday road games have gone OVER the total points line.
• Seven of the last eight games between teams from the same division have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Packers’ last four games following a win have gone OVER the total points line.

Green Bay Packers Player Prop Facts

• Christian Watson has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances against NFC North opponents.
• Jordan Love has recorded 22+ completions in each of his five previous appearances with the Packers as home underdogs.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 10+ receiving yards in each of his last 13 October appearances.
• Jordan Love has recorded 246+ passing yards in each of his five previous appearances with the Packers as home underdogs.
• Josh Jacobs has scored the last touchdown in each of his last three home appearances against NFC opponents.
• Tyrod Taylor has recorded 25+ rushing yards in each of his last four appearances with his team as a home underdog against NFC opponents.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 10+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 13 October appearances.
• Josh Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last eight home appearances against NFC opponents.
• Tucker Kraft has recorded the equal-most drops (5) of any player this season.

Chicago Bears Player Prop Facts

• Jahdae Walker has scored a touchdown in three of the Bears’ last four games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• Rome Odunze has recorded 43+ receiving yards in each of the Bears’ last six games.
• Rome Odunze has recorded 43+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bears’ last six games.
• Heading into Week 5, Tyson Bagent has the most pass attempts without a passing touchdown this season (43).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 5, the Packers rank 32nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game (58.0) this season.
• Heading into Week 5, the Packers rank 32nd in the NFL in forced fumbles (0) this season.
• Bears – eight different players have recorded at least one touchdown this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.
• Bears – three different players have recorded 50+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 5.

Bears vs Packers Prediction

In this Bears vs Packers Prediction, the Bears are coming as -2.5 road favorites. Both teams are coming off wins last week but the Packers are 1-3 against the spread this season and have been weaker both offensively and defensively, with a -8 point differential. On the flip side, the Bears have lost only once this season and are also 3-1 against the spread and are a top-10 squad both offensively and defensively for a +11.7 point differential. Chicago has also won three of its last four head-to-head meetings against Green Bay and is 4-0-1 against the spread, so I like them as small road favorites in this one. Take the Bears by -2.5 in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Chicago Bears -2.5