Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction 1/11/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Bills vs Jaguars Prediction for this AFC Wild Card game on Sunday, January 11th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this NFL matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars Preview

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a 13-4 record this season and finished first in the AFC South. They are 12-5 ATS, 10-7 in Over/Under and have a 7-2 home record and a 6-2 away record. The Jaguars are coming off a 41-7 home win against the Tennessee Titans.

Offensively, the Jaguars average 27.9 points per game, ranking 6th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 19.8 points per game, which is 8th. Jacksonville averages 337.4 total yards per game (222.3 passing and 115.1 rushing), while allowing 303.6 total yards per game (85.6 rushing and 218.0 passing).

Trevor Lawrence leads the Jaguars with 4007 passing yards with 60.9% completed passes and 29 touchdowns. Travis Etienne leads the team in rushing yards with 1107, while Parker Washington has a team-high 58 receptions for 847 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Defensively, Foyesade Oluokun has a team-high 143 total tackles (69 of them solo), while Josh Hines-Allen leads the team in sacks, with 8, while Devin Lloyd and Antonio Johnson have five interceptions each.

Buffalo Bills Preview

The Buffalo Bills have a 12-5 record this season and finished second in the AFC East. They are 8-9 ATS, 9-8 in Over/Under and have a 7-2 home record and a 5-3 away record. The Bills are coming off a 35-8 home win against the New York Jets.

Offensively, the Bills average 28.3 points per game, ranking 4th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 21.5 points per game, which is 12th. Buffalo averages 376.3 total yards per game (216.6 passing and 159.6 rushing), while allowing 293.1 total yards per game (136.2 rushing and 156.9 passing).

Josh Allen leads the Bills with 3668 passing yards with 69.3% completed passes and 25 touchdowns. James Cook leads the team in rushing yards with 1621, while Khalil Shakir has a team-high 72 receptions for 719 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Defensively, Cole Bishop has a team-high 85 total tackles (53 of them solo), while Gregory Rousseau leads the team in sacks, with 7, while Cole Bishop has three interceptions.

Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Trends: Wild Card Round

Why the Jacksonville Jaguars will win

• The home team has won each of the Bills’ last nine Wild Card Round games.
• The Bills have lost each of their last eight road postseason games.
• The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last eight games without Jordan Akins.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites following a win.
• The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games following a home win.
• The Jaguars have won the first half in eight of their last nine Sunday games at EverBank Stadium.
• The Jaguars have won the first quarter in each of their last four games as underdogs.

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won nine of their last 10 games following a Division win.
• The Jaguars have lost each of their last four games without Josh Hines-Allen.
• The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games without Brenton Strange.
• The Bills have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Bills have won the first half in each of their last six Wild Card Round games.
• The Jaguars have won the first quarter in four of their last five games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• The Bills have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Wild Card Round games.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Jaguars’ last 10 games as underdogs following a win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Bills’ last five games as favorites in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last three Sunday games at EverBank Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

• Travis Etienne has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Jaguars’ last four home games.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 26+ rushing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last five games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 244+ passing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last five games.
• Brian Thomas has recorded 47+ receiving yards in 12 of his 13 previous appearances with the Jaguars as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 20+ completions in each of his last five January appearances.
• Travis Etienne has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Jaguars’ last four games as underdogs.
• Parker Washington has recorded 75+ receiving yards in three consecutive games (including playoffs) – equal-longest streak in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• Dawson Knox has scored the first touchdown in four of the Bills’ last five Wild Card Round games.
• James Cook has scored two or more touchdowns in five of the Bills’ last six road games against teams that held a winning record.
• James Cook has recorded 85+ rushing yards in eight of the Bills’ last nine road games.
• Josh Allen has recorded 253+ passing yards in 16 of the Bills’ last 17 road games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Brandin Cooks has recorded 18+ receiving yards in each of his 25 previous appearances against AFC South opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in each of the Bills’ last nine games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in 12 of the Bills’ last 13 day games against teams on a winning streak.
• Brandin Cooks has recorded 20+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last 11 road appearances in games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• James Cook ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (1621) during the reg. season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Jaguars – seven different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
• The Jaguars ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (85.6) during the reg. season.
• Bills – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
• Bills – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.

Bills vs Jaguars Prediction

In this Bills vs Jaguars Prediction, the Bills are coming as -1-point road favorites. Both teams have almost identical overall records this season but the Jaguars have been very strong at home with a 7-2 record and have been red-hot lately, with a perfect 8-0 record both straight up and against the spread in their last 8 games. Buffalo is 5-1 in its last 6 but just 2-3 against the spread and have a weaker defense than the Jaguars and have lost their last three visits in Jacksonville, so the value here lies with the home dog. Take the Jaguars on the moneyline for plus money in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars ML