Buccaneers vs Bears Prediction 11/8/2026 Today’s NFL Picks

Buccaneers vs Bears Prediction

In this Buccaneers vs Bears Prediction, the Bears are coming as -6.5 home favorites. The Bears have been the better team this season and have been red-hot lately with a 5-1 record both straight up and against the spread in their last 6 games. They will host a Buccaneers team that has also been playing much better football lately, with all of their three wins this season coming in the span of their last four games and are also 3-1 against the spread but their offense has still been up and down, as they have scored 35 points in two of their last three games combined. They have also lost all of their last three visits in Chicago, so I like the value with the home team in this matchup. Take the Bears and lay the -6.5 points.

Chicago Bears Preview

The Chicago Bears have a 6-2 record this season are sitting on the 2nd place of the NFC North. They have a 3-0 home record and are 3-1 on the road and are 6-2 against the spread and 4-4 in over/under. They are coming off a 34-17 road win against the Seahawks and will face the Saints and the Lions next.

Offensively, the Bears average 26.8 points per game, ranking 8th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 20 points per game, which is 8th. Chicago averages 387.3 total yards per game (236.5 passing and 150.8 rushing), while allowing 305.8 total yards per game (86.8 rushing and 219 passing). They average 5.4 yards per play, while allowing 6 yards per play to opponents. They score on 42.2% of their offensive drives, while averaging 2.38 points per drive. Defensively, they allow opponents to score on 32.5% of drives, while allowing 1.89 points per drive. Offensively, they have turned the ball over 12 times, while defensively, they have forced 11 turnovers, giving them a -1 net turnover margin.

Caleb Williams leads the Bears with 1267 passing yards with 70.9% completed passes and six touchdowns. D’Andre Swift leads the team in rushing yards with 545, while Luther Burden has 42 receptions for a team-high 547 receiving yards. Defensively, Dillon Thieneman has a team-high 52 total tackles (28 of them solo), while Austin Booker leads the team in sacks, with 4.

Injury Report:

• Zavier Scott (IR, Wrist) – Est. return Dec 13

• D’Marco Jackson (Questionable, Ankle) – Est. return Nov 8

• Kyle Monangai (Questionable, Toe) – Est. return Nov 8

• Kentavius Street (IR, Knee) – Est. return Feb 15

• Braxton Jones (IR, Knee) – Est. return Feb 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 3-5 record this season are sitting on the 2nd place of the NFC South. They have a 1-4 home record and are 2-1 on the road and are 3-5 against the spread and 4-4 in over/under. They are coming off a 16-0 home win against the Falcons and will face the Lions and the Panthers next.

Offensively, the Buccaneers average 22.3 points per game, ranking 20th in the NFL, while defensively, they allow 18.9 points per game, which is 5th. Tampa Bay averages 300 total yards per game (131.4 passing and 168.6 rushing), while allowing 285.9 total yards per game (80 rushing and 205.9 passing). They average 4.8 yards per play, while allowing 4.9 yards per play to opponents. They score on 37.4% of their offensive drives, while averaging 1.78 points per drive. Defensively, they allow opponents to score on 32.6% of drives, while allowing 1.56 points per drive. Offensively, they have turned the ball over 12 times, while defensively, they have forced 16 turnovers, giving them a +4 net turnover margin.

Baker Mayfield leads the Buccaneers with 679 passing yards with 61.8% completed passes and three touchdowns. Bucky Irving leads the team in rushing yards with 728, while Chris Godwin has 27 receptions for a team-high 243 receiving yards. Defensively, Josiah Trotter has a team-high 68 total tackles (32 of them solo), while David Walker leads the team in sacks, with 4.

Injury Report:

• Tristan Wirfs (Questionable, Toe) – Est. return Nov 8

• Jalen McMillan (IR, Knee – PCL) – Est. return Nov 22

• Tykee Smith (Questionable, Ankle) – Est. return Nov 8

• Yaya Diaby (Out, Knee – MCL) – Est. return Nov 22

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears Betting Trends: Week 9

 

Why the Chicago Bears will win

• The Buccaneers have lost each of their last nine Week 9 games as underdogs.
• The Bears have won each of their last six games against NFC South opponents.
• The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games without Calijah Kancey.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of the last six games between the Buccaneers and Bears.
• The Bears have won the first quarter in four of their last five games against NFC South opponents.
• The Bears have won the first half in each of their last five games against NFC South opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win

• The Bears have lost 18 of their last 19 games against NFC opponents on a winning streak.
• The Buccaneers have won three of their last four games as road underdogs following a Division win.
• The Bears have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six November games as favorites against NFC opponents.
• The Buccaneers have covered the spread in five of their last six games as road underdogs following a Division game.
• The Bears have lost the first quarter in each of their last two November games as favorites against NFC South opponents.
• The Buccaneers have won the first half in four of their last five games against the Bears following a win.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of the Bears’ last nine Sunday home games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last five Sunday games at Soldier Field have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Buccaneers’ last four games against NFC North opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Chicago Bears Player Prop Facts

• Caleb Williams has recorded 21+ rushing yards in each of the Bears’ last four November home games.
• Kalif Raymond has recorded 17+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as a favorite against NFC South opponents.
• Caleb Williams has recorded 247+ passing yards in each of his last six appearances in night games against NFC opponents.
• D’Andre Swift has recorded 120+ rushing and receiving yards in four of his last five regular season appearances against NFC South opponents.
• Caleb Williams has recorded 23+ completions in each of his last four appearances in night games against NFC opponents.
• D’Andre Swift has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Bears’ last four games against NFC South opponents.
• Heading into Week 9, D’Andre Swift ranks 1st in the NFL in rushing touchdowns (10) this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts

• Tez Johnson has scored a touchdown in three of the Buccaneers’ last four games as road underdogs against teams that held a winning record.
• Sean Tucker has recorded 10+ rushing yards in five of his last six appearances with the Buccaneers as underdogs.
• Sean Tucker has recorded 18+ rushing and receiving yards in four of the Buccaneers’ last five road games against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 9, Chase McLaughlin has recorded the most made field goals without a failed attempt this season (19).

Matchup/League Facts

• Bears – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 9.
• Bears – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 9.
• Buccaneers – two different players have recorded 100+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 9.
• Buccaneers – seven different players have recorded one interception or more in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into Week 9.

• Josh Hayes (IR-R, Knee) – Est. return Nov 22

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Chicago Bears -6.5