Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos Prediction NFL Picks 11/17/24

Denver Broncos (5-5) vs Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

Game Info: Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 4:05 pm (Empower Field at Mile High)

Betting Odds: Denver Broncos -2.5/ Atlanta Falcons +2.5 --- Over/Under: 43.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos meet Sunday in week 11 NFL action at Empower Field at Mile High. Here’s an Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos Prediction. This article will include an Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos Pick.

Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview

The Atlanta Falcons lost to the Saints, beat the Cowboys, and play the Chargers next. The Atlanta Falcons have won 3 of their last 4 road games. Kirk Cousins is completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 2,634 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Darnell Mooney and Drake London have combined for 1,333 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, while Kyle Pitts has 34 receptions.

The Atlanta Falcons ground game is averaging 124.7 yards per contest, and Bijan Robinson leads the way with 748 yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, Atlanta is allowing 23.6 points and 352.8 yards per game. Kaden Elliss leads the Atlanta Falcons with 88 tackles, Grady Jarrett has 2.5 sacks and Jessie Bates III has 2 interceptions.

Denver Broncos Betting Preview

The Denver Broncos lost to the Ravens and Chiefs, and they play the Raiders next. The Denver Broncos have split their last 4 home games. Bo Nix is completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 1,968 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Courtland Sutton and Javonte Williams have combined for 791 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Devaughn Vele has 22 receptions.

The Denver Broncos ground game is averaging 117.1 yards per contest, and Williams leads the way with 388 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Denver is allowing 17.7 points and 295.7 yards per game. Brandon Jones leads the Denver Broncos with 74 tackles, Nik Bonitto has 7 sacks and Pat Surtain II has 3 interceptions.

Why the Atlanta Falcons will win

  • The Broncos have lost five of their last seven November games as home favorites.
  • The underdogs have won four of the Broncos' last six Week 11 games.
  • The underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the Broncos' last 11 Week 11 games.
  • The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight November games as home favorites.
  • The Falcons have won the first quarter in each of their last two games as underdogs following a road loss.
  • The Broncos have lost the first half in four of their last five November home games against NFC opponents.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

  • Javonte Williams has recorded 35+ rushing yards in 14 of his last 15 appearances with the Broncos as home favorites.
  • Jaleel McLaughlin has recorded 25+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Broncos' last five games as favorites.
  • Bo Nix has scored a touchdown in three of the Broncos' last four games against NFC opponents.
  • Bo Nix has recorded 206+ passing yards in each of the Broncos' last five Sunday games.
  • Adam Trautman has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of his last six November appearances against NFC opponents.
  • Bo Nix has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of the Broncos' last three home games.
  • Bo Nix has recorded 20+ completions in each of the Broncos' last three games following a road loss.
  • Kwon Alexander is just one away from 10 career interceptions (including playoffs).

Atlanta Falcons Player Prop Facts

  • Bijan Robinson has recorded 86+ rushing yards in four of the Falcons' last five games.
  • Bijan Robinson has recorded 105+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Falcons' last five games.
  • Bijan Robinson has scored at least one touchdown in four of the Falcons' last five games.
  • Kirk Cousins has recorded 265+ passing yards in four of his last five November road appearances.
  • Bijan Robinson has recorded 32+ receiving yards in each of the Falcons' last four games following a road loss.
  • Kirk Cousins has thrown three touchdowns in three of his last four Week 11 appearances.
  • Kirk Cousins has recorded 25+ completions in each of his last three November appearances against AFC opponents.
  • Heading into Week 11, Kirk Cousins has recorded the most passing yards in a single game this season (509 vs Buccaneers, Week 5).

Matchup/League Facts

  • Heading into Week 11, the Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in total punt yards (2245) this season.
  • Heading into Week 11, the Broncos rank 3rd in the NFL in Q4 opponent points per game (3.8) this season.
  • Heading into Week 11, the Falcons rank 29th in the NFL in total punt yards (1330) this season.
  • Heading into Week 11, the Falcons rank 4th in the NFL in 4th down percentage (70.6%) this season.

Atlanta Falcons vs Denver Broncos Prediction

This line is a bit crazy when you can make a strong argument that the Falcons are the better team, and they've won 3 of their last 4 road games. The Denver Broncos have gone back into their hole offensively, scoring a combined 24 points in their last 2 games. Sure, those games came on the road against the Ravens and Chiefs, but still. The Broncos are 24th in total offense and 22nd in scoring offense. I understand the Broncos are great defensively and being at home helps, but it feels like we're getting points with the better, more balanced team. Give me the Falcons. 

Randy’s Pick Atlanta Falcons +2.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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