Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints Prediction NFL Picks 11/17/24

New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

The New Orleans Saints are 3-7 this season after they defeated Atlanta by a score of 20-17 in their last game. New Orleans led 17-7 at halftime and they were able to get the win, despite only scoring three points in the second half. The Saints were outgained by a total of 468-365, won the turnover battle 1-0, and went 5-13 on third down in the game. Derek Carr threw for 269 yards and two touchdowns, while Alvin Kamara rushed for 55 yards on 17 carries. 

Prior to that win, the Saints lost seven games in a row and they allowed at least 26 points in five of those games. The New Orleans offense has scored 22.7 points per game with 212.4 passing yards and 122.4 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 24.6 points per game this season. Derek Carr has completed 67.4% of his passes for 1,494 yards, 11 touchdowns, and four interceptions, while Alvin Kamara has rushed for 715 yards and also has 421 receiving yards, with seven total touchdowns. 

Why the Saints will beat the Browns

• The Browns have lost each of their last nine road games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The favorites have won each of the Saints' last seven Week 11 games.
• The Browns have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine interstate games when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Saints have covered the spread in each of their last four Week 11 games as favorites.
• The Saints have won the first quarter in three of their last four games following a home win.
• The Browns have lost the first half in 14 of their last 16 Sunday games as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Browns' last eight Week 11 games have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Four of the Saints' last five home games in November have gone UNDER the total points line.

New Orleans Saints Player Prop Facts

• Alvin Kamara has recorded 45+ receiving yards in six of his seven previous appearances with the Saints as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• Rashid Shaheed has scored a touchdown in four of the Saints' last five games following a win.
• Derek Carr has recorded 211+ passing yards in 14 of his last 15 November appearances.
• Jamaal Williams has recorded 10+ rushing yards in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
• Jamaal Williams has recorded 31+ rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 appearances with his team as a favorite against AFC opponents.
• Derek Carr has recorded 20+ completions in seven of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against AFC opponents.
• Derek Carr has thrown three or more touchdowns in three of the Saints' last four games as home favorites.
• Heading into Week 11, Alvin Kamara has recorded the equal-most rushing touchdowns in a single game this season (3 vs Cowboys, Week 2).

Cleveland Browns Player Prop Facts

• Nick Chubb has recorded 16+ receiving yards in six of his last seven November appearances with the Browns as underdogs.
• Nick Chubb has scored at least one touchdown in three of his four previous November appearances against NFC opponents.
• Jameis Winston has recorded 313+ passing yards in three of his last four November appearances with his team as an underdog against NFC opponents.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 66+ rushing yards in each of the Browns' last seven games against NFC South opponents.
• Nick Chubb has recorded 66+ rushing and receiving yards in 19 of his last 20 appearances against NFC opponents.
• Jameis Winston has thrown two or more touchdowns in four of his last five November road appearances against NFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 11, Denzel Ward ranks 1st in the league for passes defensed (15) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 11, the Saints rank 31st in the NFL in Q3 points per game (2.5) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Saints rank 31st in the NFL in H2 points per game (7.3) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Browns rank 32nd in the NFL in 3rd down percentage (28.7%) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Browns rank 1st in the NFL in Q4 opponent points per game (3.0) this season.

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints Prediction 

Cleveland comes into this matchup after having their bye last week, but they were dominated by the Chargers in their last game. The Browns are just 1-3 on the road this season, while the Saints are 2-3 at home. New Orleans was able to finally snap their losing streak with a win over Atlanta last week and I like them to string two wins together here. I really don’t love either team in this matchup, but I think Carr and the Saints’ offense has more upside than the inconsistent Jameis Winston.