Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction NFL Picks 11/10/24

Indianapolis Colts Betting Preview

The Indianapolis Colts are 4-5 this year after they lost to Minnesota by a score of 21-13 in their last game. Indianapolis led 7-0 at the half, but they allowed 14 points in the third quarter and never got the lead back. The Colts were outgained by a total of 415-227, won the turnover battle 3-2, and went 3-11 on third down in the game. Joe Flacco threw for 179 yards and one interception, while Josh Downs caught six passes for 60 yards in the game. 

Prior to that loss, the Colts lost to Houston by a score of 23-20 but did beat Miami and Tennessee before that. The Indianapolis offense has scored 20.9 points per game with 193.7 passing yards and 121.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 21.4 points per game this season. Joe Flacco has completed 64.4% of his passes for 895 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 502 yards and five scores. 

Why the Colts will cover

• The home team has won seven of the Colts' last eight games.
• The Bills have lost seven of their eight previous November road games against AFC South opponents.
• The Colts have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against AFC East opponents.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games in November.
• The Bills have lost the first quarter in three of their last four games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Bills have lost the first half in five of their last six November road games against AFC South opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Bills' last eight games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Colts' last four games following a loss has gone UNDER the total points line.

Indianapolis Colts Player Prop Facts

• Jonathan Taylor has scored a touchdown in each of his last seven appearances against AFC opponents.
• Josh Downs has recorded 72+ receiving yards in each of his last four Sunday appearances with the Colts as home underdogs.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 91+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven November appearances at Lucas Oil Stadium.
• Jonathan Taylor has recorded 83+ rushing yards in each of his last seven November appearances at Lucas Oil Stadium.
• Jonathan Taylor has scored the first touchdown in four of his last five Sunday appearances at Lucas Oil Stadium.
• Jonathan Taylor is just one away from 50 career touchdowns.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• Josh Allen has recorded 43+ rushing yards in each of the Bills' last five November road games.
• Amari Cooper has scored at least one touchdown in four of his last five appearances following a win.
• Dawson Knox has recorded 10+ receiving yards in 18 of his 19 previous appearances with the Bills as road favorites against AFC opponents.
• Curtis Samuel has recorded 25+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Josh Allen has recorded 248+ passing yards in eight of the Bills' last nine regular season games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Josh Allen has thrown two or more touchdowns in nine of the Bills' last 10 games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 22+ completions in eight of the Bills' last 10 games as moderate favorites (-3.5 to -7.0 points).
• Rasul Douglas is just one away from 20 career interceptions (including playoffs).

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 10, the Colts rank 32nd in the NFL in Q2 points per game (2.9) this season.
• Heading into Week 10, the Colts rank 1st in the NFL in Q4 points per game (10.1) this season.
• Heading into Week 10, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in H2 points per game (15.4) this season.
• Heading into Week 10, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in H2 win percentage (77.8) this season.

Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction 

Buffalo rolls into this matchup looking for their fifth win in a row and they have scored 30+ points in three straight games. The Bills did play a close game against Miami last week and they are 3-2 on the road. Indianapolis has lost two games in a row, but they are 3-1 at home so far this year. The Colts are sticking with Joe Flacco at quarterback, but he didn’t look very good against Minnesota last week. This Colts offense is not my favorite and I question how Flacco will hold up as the season progresses, but I do think they can keep this game close, as their defense has been decent over the last month. Take Indianapolis with the points here.