Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction NFL Picks 10/6/24

New England Patriots Betting Preview

The New England Patriots are 1-3 this season after they lost to San Francisco by a score of 30-13 last week. New England trailed 20-3 at halftime and did cut the deficit to 20-10, but couldn’t get any closer. The Patriots were outgained by a total of 431-216, lost the turnover battle 3-2, and went 5-16 on third down in the game. Jacoby Brissett threw for 168 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, while Antonio Gibson caught three passes for 67 yards. 

New England has also lost to Seattle and the Jets so far this season, but they did beat Cincinnati by a score of 16-10 in their first game. The NE offense has scored 13 points per game with 112.3 passing yards and 126.5 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 21.8 points per game this season. The Patriots have gone 32.8% on third down and 4-6 on fourth down through four games. Jacoby Brissett has completed 60.4% of his passes for 536 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while Rhamondre Stevenson has rushed for 267 yards and two scores. 

Why the Dolphins will beat the Patriots

• The Patriots have lost each of their last eight Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Dolphins have won 13 of their last 14 Sunday games against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in each of their last eight games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Dolphins have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against the Patriots.
• The Dolphins have won the first half in 11 of their last 13 Sunday games against teams that held a losing record.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in three of the Dolphins' last four Week 5 games.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Patriots' last 10 games as favorites have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Dolphins' last four road games played on the East Coast has gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the last six games between AFC East teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

New England Patriots Player Prop Facts

• Kendrick Bourne has recorded 43+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four appearances following a loss.
• Rhamondre Stevenson has scored a touchdown in three of his last four appearances in Sunday games played on the East Coast.
• Jacoby Brissett has recorded 229+ passing yards in three of his last four Sunday appearances with his team as a home favorite.
• Austin Hooper has recorded 19+ receiving yards in each of his last seven October appearances as home favorites against AFC opponents.
• Antonio Gibson has recorded 58+ rushing yards in each of his three previous appearances with his team as a home favorite against AFC opponents.
• Kyle Dugger is just one away from 10 career interceptions (including playoffs).

Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts

• Raheem Mostert has scored at least one touchdown in five of his last six regular-season appearances.
• Durham Smythe has recorded 10+ receiving yards in eight of the Dolphins' last nine games against AFC East opponents.
• Tua Tagovailoa has recorded 11+ rushing yards in four of his last five appearances.
• Jonnu Smith has recorded 27+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four appearances against division opponents.
• Marcus Maye is just two away from 10 career interceptions.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Patriots rank 31st in the NFL in points per game (13.0) this season.
• The Patriots rank T2nd in the NFL in forced fumbles (5) this season.
• The Dolphins rank 3rd in the NFL in average punt return (16.8 yards) this season.
• The Dolphins rank T30th in the NFL in H1 points per game (5.8) this season.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Prediction 

Miami comes into this game after really struggling to score over the last two weeks and they will look to turn things around here. The Dolphins quarterback situation is less than ideal, but if Huntley is under center, I would think he would be more comfortable this week. New England hasn’t been very competitive in their last two games either, but they will be at home for this matchup. The quarterback situation for both teams is not good, but I am going to side with the Dolphins, who have more weapons on the offensive side. Take Miami here.