Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Prediction NFL Picks 10/6/24

The Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans meet in week 5 NFL action from NRG Stadium on Sunday afternoon. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans prediction.

Buffalo Bills Recap

The Buffalo Bills come into this one looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season after taking one on the chin against the Baltimore Ravens last time out, falling to 3-1 on the year after a 35-10 defeat. After this game, the Bills will head out to MetLife for a division matchup against the Jets.

Bills Trying To Avoid Slide After First Loss

Josh Allen has thrown for 814 yards and 7 touchdowns on 69.3% passing while also rushing for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns. James Cook has a team-high 227 rushing yards with 3 TDs while Khalil Shakir has a team-high 18 receptions for 230 yards and 2 touchdowns. Dalton Kincaid, Keon Coleman, and Cook each have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Dorian Williams has a team-high 42 total tackles including 24 solo tackles while Greg Rousseau and Von Miller each have 3 sacks as well on the year. As a unit, Buffalo’s defense has put up 12 sacks and 4 interceptions this season.

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won each of their last six road games before a Division game.
• The Texans have lost each of their last six games against AFC East opponents.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games.
• The Bills have covered the spread in five of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.

Houston Texans Recap

The Houston Texans come into this game looking to build on their own 3-1 mark after a 24-20 win over Jacksonville last time out. After this game, the Texans will head out on the road for the first of back-to-back road games, this one against the New England Patriots.

Texans Narrowly Edge Jags

C.J. Stroud has thrown for 1,054 yards, 6 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions on 67.6% passing while Joe Mixon has a team-high 184 rushing yards and Cam Akers has 106 rushing yards as well on the year. Nico Collins has a team-high 30 receptions for 489 yards and 2 touchdowns while Stefon Diggs also has 25 grabs for 233 yards and 2 TDs as well on the year. On defense, Henry To’oTo’o has a team-high 32 total tackles while Azeez Al-Shakir has 29 total tackles including a team-high 21 solo tackles. Will Anderson Jr. has a team-high 2.5 sacks while Houston’s defense as a whole has combined for 14 sacks and 3 interceptions this season.

Why the Houston Texans will win

• The home team has won each of the last six games between the Bills and Texans.
• The Bills have lost each of their last two October games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games before a Division game.
• The Texans have covered the spread in each of their last five Week 5 games.

Bills vs. Texans Recap

I’m leaning toward the Texans here. I think people will see the Bills in a pick ‘em spot against a Texans team that almost lost to the winless Jags and immediately think to go the other way. However, I’m concerned that this road trip might bring Buffalo back down to earth, as the Bills had a relatively soft schedule to start 3-0, but now face teams with a pulse and the Texans at home have been a tough out as of late and the Texans also have a solid defense that can slow down Josh Allen. I’ll side with Houston at home here.