Warriors vs Rockets Prediction 11/11/2026 NBA Picks Today

Warriors vs Rockets Prediction

I’ve been on the Rockets from the start, as it feels like they can make a run this season and finally start playing to their potential. The Rockets look good and are 8-3 ATS this season. However, the Warriors have won 8 straight games and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. While you can look at this Warriors roster and say this run isn’t sustainable, the money is piling up. Until the Warriors cool off, there’s going to be value with them, especially in the underdog role.

The underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 games between the Warriors and Rockets. The Warriors have outright won their last three games as an underdog. While the Rockets are the better team and a team I’ll back a lot throughout the season, I’m not leaving this many points on the table with the Warriors. Give me the free buckets.

Golden State Warriors Betting Preview

The Golden State Warriors beat the Pelicans and Magic, and they play the Spurs next. The Warriors have won 8 straight games. The Warriors are 2-2 SU on the road, 6-1 SU at home this season, and 8-3 ATS.

The Golden State Warriors are averaging 120.4 points per game on 47.7 percent shooting and allowing 111.2 points per game on 45.4 percent shooting. Stephen Curry averages 30.6 points and 4.3 assists per game. Yaxel Lendeborg averages 21.4 points and 4 assists per game. Brandin Podziemski is averaging 16.8 points and 5 rebounds per game. Brandon Williams is averaging 10.4 points and 2.3 assists per game. The Golden State Warriors are shooting 40.3 percent from beyond the arc and 82 percent from the free-throw line. The Golden State Warriors are allowing 34 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.3 rebounds per game.

Houston Rockets Betting Preview

The Houston Rockets lost to the Suns, beat the Nuggets, and they play the Jazz next. The Rockets have won 17 of their last 21 games. The Rockets are 3-2 SU on the road, 5-1 SU at home, and 8-3 ATS this season.

The Houston Rockets are averaging 115.5 points per game on 47.8 percent shooting and allowing 106.4 points per game on 45.7 percent shooting. Alperen Sengun is averaging 21.3 points per game and 9 rebounds. Kevin Durant is averaging 21 points per game and 6.3 rebounds. Jabari Smith Jr. is averaging 17 points per game and 6.5 rebounds. Amen Thompson is averaging 14.9 points per game and 6.7 rebounds. The Houston Rockets are shooting 37.5 percent from beyond the arc and 82 percent from the free-throw line. The Houston Rockets are allowing 31.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.5 rebounds per game.

Warriors vs Rockets Injury Report

The Rockets are without Steven Adams due to a soleus strain. Clint Capela is out with an ankle sprain.

Jimmy Butler is out for the Warriors with an ACL injury. Moses Moody is out with a patellar tendon injury. Gary Payton is out with a knee issue. Will Richard is questionable with a thumb injury. Kristaps Porzingis is not with the team. Brandon Williams is out with a hamstring issue.

Why the Houston Rockets will win

• The Warriors have lost 10 of their last 11 road games following a home win.
• The Rockets have won five of their last six home games.
• The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 11 road games following a home win.
• The home team has covered the spread in five of the Rockets’ last six games.

Why the Golden State Warriors will win

• The Warriors have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against Southwest Division opponents.
• The Rockets have lost five of their last six games as favorites against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Warriors have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games.
• The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games as favorites against Western Conference opponents following a win.

Total Points Facts

• Six of the Rockets’ last seven games as home favorites following a home win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Four of the Warriors’ last five games as underdogs following a home win have gone OVER the total points line.

Houston Rockets Player Facts

• Kevin Durant is one of only two qualified players in the league to be leading their team in blocks per game (1.4) and free-throw percentage (86.4%) this season.
• Tari Eason rank T13th in the league for total steals + blocks (26) this season.

Golden State Warriors Player Facts

• De’Anthony Melton ranks 15th amongst qualified players for steals per 36 minutes (2.4) this season.
• Yaxel Lendeborg ranks 17th amongst qualified players for FG% (52.3%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rockets rank 1st in the league for Q2 win percentage this season (81.8%).
• Rockets players have recorded the fewest games with 40+ points (0) this season.
• The Warriors have recorded the largest comeback win from a Q1 deficit this season – trailing by 23 points @ Lakers on October 30.
• The Warriors rank 1st in the league for H2 points per game this season (61.2).

Randy Chambers's Pick: Warriors +6.5