San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 5/26/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder duke it out in a pivotal Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals at the Paycom Center on Tuesday night. Here’s a San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction. This article will include a San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick.

San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview 

The San Antonio Spurs looked to be in trouble after dropping two games in a row, but they will be feeling much better after they squared up the series with a crucial 103-82 home win over the Thunder in Game 4 on Sunday. Victor Wembenyama led the team with 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists, and three blocks. Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle each scored 13 points, while De’Aaron Fox chipped in with 12 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists.

As a team, the Spurs shot just 39 percent from the field and nine of 33 from the 3-point line, but this win was all about their defense as they swarmed the Thunder from the very start and were always in control after restricting the Thunder to just 38 points in the first half. Keldon Johnson shot just three of 12 from the field for his six points off the bench, while Julian Champagnie scored just two points on one of seven shots from the field. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder will be kicking themselves after missing out on a crucial chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead in Game 4. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team in scoring with just 19 points and seven assists on six of 15 shooting. Isaiah Hartenstein added 12 points with seven rebounds and three assists, while Isaiah Joe chipped in with 11 points off the bench.

As a team, the Thunder shot a miserly 33 percent from the field and just six of 33 from the 3-point line as they worked hard to cut an early 15-point deficit to just five points in the second quarter, only to get blown out in the second half, where they trailed by as many as 25 points at one stage. Jared McCain scored just four points on one of 10 shooting off the bench, while Jaylin Williams finished with just three points on one of seven shooting. 

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last nine playoff games at Paycom Center following a loss.
• The Spurs have lost each of their last four night games at Paycom Center following a home win.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last eight playoff games as home favorites following a loss.
• The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 night games at Paycom Center following a home win.

Why the San Antonio Spurs will win

• The Spurs have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Thunder have lost eight of their 10 previous Game 5s of a Western Conference Finals series.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games at Paycom Center following a road loss.
• The Spurs have covered the spread in four of their last five games as road underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Spurs’ last six games as underdogs following a home win have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Eight of the Thunder’s last nine games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the last eight Western Conference Finals games have gone OVER the total points line.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Chet Holmgren ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for blocks per game (1.9) this season.
• Jaylin Williams has scored 102 career points against the Spurs – equal-most against any opponent (including playoffs).

San Antonio Spurs Player Facts

• Stephon Castle has scored 210 career points against the Thunder – most against any opponent (including playoffs).
• Devin Vassell has recorded 61 career assists against the Thunder – most against any opponent (including playoffs).

Matchup/League Facts

• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free-throw percentage this season (74.0%).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throws made per game this season (16.2).
• The Spurs rank 1st in the league for Q1 win percentage this season (69.5%).
• The Spurs rank 2nd in the league for point differential per game this season (+8.3).

San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

The Spurs don’t have any injuries to report, while the Thunder are keeping an eye on Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams, who are both questionable. The Spurs needed to respond after dropping two games in a row, and they did that in emphatic fashion as they trounced the Thunder in Game 4 in a complete 48-minute performance. The Thunder’s Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t getting his usual foul calls on his flops, and that lack of scoring was compounded by the poor shooting from Aaron Wiggins, Jared McCain, and Jaylin Williams, who combined to shoot four of 28 from the field.

The Spurs will be delighted with how they dominated on Sunday, and they will be confident they can pull off the upset on the road in Game 5, especially because they already did that in the series opener. The line could change by the time tipoff comes around, given the injury cloud hanging over the Thunder, but the Spurs are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games overall, and I think that trend continues here with the Spurs taking this one down to the wire at the very least.

Peter Tran's Pick: San Antonio +5.5