Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction 5/24/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs meet Sunday in NBA Game 4 at the Frost Bank Center. Here’s an Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Prediction. This article will include an Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs Pick.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder look for their sixth road playoff win to take a 3-1 series lead. The Thunder have won 17 of their last 20 games.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 120.9 points on 49.4 percent shooting and allowing 107.3 points on 45.5 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.5 points and 8.2 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 17.8 points and 4 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Ajay Mitchell is grabbing 3.7 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 38.7 percent from beyond the arc and 84.6 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 35.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 41 rebounds per game.

San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview

The San Antonio Spurs look for a fifth home playoff win to even up the series at 2-2. The Spurs have won 44 of their last 57 games.

The San Antonio Spurs are averaging 116.4 points on 48.1 percent shooting and allowing 106.2 points on 41.6 percent shooting. Victor Wembanyama is averaging 22.4 points and 11.7 rebounds, while Stephon Castle is averaging 19.6 points and 6.6 assists. De’Aaron Fox is the third double-digit scorer, and Dylan Harper is dishing 2.5 assists. The San Antonio Spurs are shooting 37.2 percent from beyond the arc and 80 percent from the free throw line. The San Antonio Spurs are allowing 33.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 47.6 rebounds per game.

Why the San Antonio Spurs will win

• The Spurs have won each of their last eight home games after losing as favorites.
• The Thunder have lost eight of their last 10 road games against Spurs teams that held a winning record.
• The Spurs have covered the spread in each of their last nine games as favorites after losing as favorites.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 10 road games against Spurs teams that held a winning record.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last six night Game 4s of a playoff series.
• The Spurs have lost six of their last seven Western Conference Finals games.
• The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Sunday games against Thunder teams that held a winning record.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in five of their last six playoff games as underdogs.

Total Points: Facts

• Each of the Spurs’ last eight playoff games has gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Thunder’s last seven road games against Western Conference opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the last three Western Conference Finals games has gone OVER the total points line.

San Antonio Spurs Player Facts

• Stephon Castle has scored 197 career points against the Thunder—most against any opponent (including playoffs).
• Keldon Johnson has recorded 44 career three-pointers against the Thunder—most against any opponent (including playoffs).

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Chet Holmgren ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for blocks per game (1.9) this season.
• Isaiah Hartenstein leads all Thunder players for rebounds per 36 minutes (14.0) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Spurs rank 1st in the league for Q1 win percentage this season (69.5%).
• The Spurs rank 2nd in the league for point differential per game this season (+8.3).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (74.0%).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throws made per game this season (16.2).

Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Injury Report

The Spurs don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

The Thunder will be without Thomas Sober due to an ACL injury. Ajay Mitchell is out with a soleus strain. Jalen Williams is questionable with hamstring soreness.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction

I considered the Thunder and the points, as you simply don’t get them as underdogs often. In fact, this will be just the ninth time since 2025 where OKC is an underdog. That’s nine times in the last 508 days. However, I’ve been on the Spurs from the start and it’s kind of too late to turn back now. I’m not giving up just because they folded in game 3 after the Thunder punched back from a hot first quarter start. The Spurs are the one team in the league that doesn’t fear OKC and has had consistent success in this matchup. Must win game at home; I expect the Spurs to even up this series. If they don’t, a highly anticipated series will end in disappointing fashion. I’ll lay the bucket.

Randy Chambers's Pick: San Antonio Spurs -2.5