Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 10/22/2025 Today’s NBA Picks

The Houston Rockets and the Oklahoma City Thunder battle to kick off the NBA season at the Paycom Center on Tuesday night. Here’s a Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick.

Houston Rockets Betting Preview 

The Houston Rockets have been one of the most improved teams over the last few seasons. They were able to win 52 games last season, and they look set to go even further with Kevin Durant now joining the squad and signing for a two-year $90 million contract extension. The Rockets were busy in the offseason as they moved Dillon Brooks, Jalen Green, Cam Whitmore, and Jock Landale.

However, they still have plenty of continuity as they retained Steven Adams, Aaron Holiday, Jeff Green, Jabari Smith Jr, Jae’Sean Tate, and Fred VanVleet. As a team, the Rockets averaged 114.3 points per game last season while shooting 45.5 percent from the field and 35.8 percent from the 3-point line. It’s safe to expect those numbers to rise with an elite scorer in Durant injected into the young lineup to give them a clear go-to option at the end of close games.

The Rockets finished last season with the fifth ranked defense while earning the second seed in the Western Conference, so the fact that they addressed their offensive weakness with Durant means that expectations have been raised once again.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder put it all together to win the NBA Championship last season, winning 68 games in the regular season before they finished the job in the playoffs. They became the youngest team ever to win the title in NBA history. What made it more impressive was that the Thunder broke the record for the highest ever point differential and won a total of 43 games by double digits, so there was no real reason to make any moves in the offseason.

As a team, the Thunder averaged 120.5 points per game while shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 37.4 percent from the 3-point line. Their strength was clearly on the defensive end, where they constantly forced turnovers to ignite their offense on the other end. In fact, the Thunder had three players finish in the top seven in steals per game. On the offensive end, it was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who led the way with averages of 32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game on his way to the league MVP and the Finals MVP titles. 

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last nine Tuesday night games at Paycom Center.
• The Rockets have lost nine of their last 10 season openers.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games at Paycom Center.
• The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five Tuesday night games.

Why the Houston Rockets will win

• The Thunder have lost six of their last seven home openers.
• The Rockets have won three of their last four games against Northwest Division opponents.
• The Rockets have covered the spread in three of their last four games against the Thunder.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Rockets’ last 11 night games against Northwest Division opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Thunder’s last five season openers against Western Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Cason Wallace ranked 3rd amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.8) last season.
• Luguentz Dort played the most minutes in a single game without scoring a point of any player in the league last season – (39:27) against Kings on November 25.

Houston Rockets Player Facts

• Alperen Sengun has recorded 13+ rebounds in two consecutive appearances – equal-longest active streak of any player in the league.
• Amen Thompson was one of only five players in the league to have recorded 7+ steals in a game last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Thunder ranked 1st in the league for opponent steals per game last season (6.7).
• The Thunder ranked 1st in the league for turnovers per game last season (11.7).
• The Rockets ranked 30th in the league for free throw percentage last season (73.8%).
• The Rockets ranked 1st in the league for opponent free throw percentage last season (75.9%).

Houston Rockets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

The season hasn’t even begun yet, and we’re already seeing the Thunder as near double-digit favorites at home, which is no surprise given how dominant they were last season. However, the Rockets held their own against the Thunder last season as they won two of the five meetings.

The Thunder are the defending champs, they are playing at home on the same night they will be receiving their championship rings, so there’s every chance they could be a little distracted. However, I expect the Rockets to go through some growing pains, so a matchup with the Thunder right off the bat isn’t exactly ideal. The line is a little hefty, but I think the Thunder eventually take over with their defense and pull away for the win and cover at home in front of a packed house.