Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction 3/5/2026 Today’s NBA Picks

The Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets do battle at the Toyota Center on Thursday night. Here’s a Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets prediction. This article will include a Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets pick.

Golden State Warriors Betting Preview 

The Golden State Warriors have been struggling for form lately, as they’ve lost eight of their last 12 games overall and they will be hoping to avoid a third straight defeat after getting beaten by the Clippers in a 114-101 loss on Monday. Brandin Podziemski led the team with 22 points on nine of 18 shooting, Nate Williams added 18 points off the bench, and Al Horford chipped in with 17 points.

As a team, the Warriors shot just 39 percent from the field and 17 of 48 from the 3-point line as they dominated the first quarter by 31-19 to open up an early 17-point lead, but they couldn’t maintain that pace and allowed the Clippers to pour in 72 points in the second half to trail by as many as 17 points at one stage.

Houston Rockets Betting Preview 

Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets have been in great form, as they’ve won seven of their last 10 games overall and they will be eager to keep it going after outlasting the Wizards in a 123-118 road win on Monday. Alperen Sengun led the team with 32 points and 13 rebounds on 12 of 20 shooting, Kevin Durant added 30 points on eight of 15 shooting, Amen Thompson tallied 22 points with 12 rebounds, and Reed Sheppard chipped in with 19 points, seven rebounds, and 10 assists.

As a team, the Rockets shot 49 percent from the field and nine of 25 from the 3-point line as they dominated the second quarter by 34-21 to take a nine-point lead into halftime and they kept their foot on the gas until the lead ballooned to 19 points. 

Why the Houston Rockets will win

• The Rockets have won seven of their last eight night games against Pacific Division opponents that held a winning record.
• The Warriors have lost each of their last four night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine night games against teams that held a winning record.
• The home team has covered the spread in four of the Rockets’ last five games.

Why the Golden State Warriors will win

• The Warriors have won each of their last six games against the Rockets following a home loss.
• The Rockets have lost three of their last four games on the first leg of a back-to-back against the Warriors.
• The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites following a road win.
• The Warriors have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Rockets following a loss.

Total Points: Facts

• Each of the Warriors’ last six road games against the Rockets following a home loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Rockets’ last six home games following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.

Houston Rockets Player Facts

• Amen Thompson ranks 4th in the league for points in the paint (692) this season.
• Tari Eason ranks 13th amongst qualified players for 3P% (42.1%) this season.

Golden State Warriors Player Facts

• Al Horford ranks 10th amongst qualified centers for three-pointers made per game (1.6) this season.
• De’Anthony Melton leads all Warriors players for steals per 36 minutes (2.5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rockets have suffered the largest comeback loss from an HT lead this season—led by 22 points at the Pelicans on December 18.
• The Rockets rank 1st in the league for Q1 opponent points per game this season (26.6).
• This season, 42.5% of the Warriors’ scoring has come from beyond the three-point line—the highest mark in the league.
• The Warriors rank 3rd in the league for assists per game this season (29.2).

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction

The Warriors are still missing Stephen Curry, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler III, Will Richard, Kristaps Porzingis, and Seth Curry, while the Rockets have ruled out Jae’Sean Tate, Steven Adams, and Fred VanVleet, with Jabari Smith and Alperen Sengun both questionable.

These teams last met on Nov 26 and it was the Rockets who won by 104-100. Both teams are missing some key players but the Warriors are clearly the team more affected by injuries so while I like the Warriors to come out swinging, in the end I have the Rockets winning comfortably at home.

Peter Tran's Pick: Houston -9.5