Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 5/18/25 NBA Picks

The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Friday in the NBA playoffs Game 7 at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick.

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview 

The Denver Nuggets look to make the conference finals for the second time in three years. The Nuggets are 2-4 on the road in these playoffs. The Nuggets have won three of their last four game 7s. 

The Denver Nuggets are averaging 108.1 points on 45 percent shooting and allowing 110.8 points on 46.7 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 26.7 points and 13 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 22.5 points and 5.2 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is the third double-digit scorer, and Russell Westbrook is grabbing 3.6 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 35.9 percent from beyond the arc and 76.3 percent from the free-throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 34.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 46.4 rebounds per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview 

The Oklahoma City Thunder look to make the conference finals for the first time since the 2015-16 season. The Thunder are 4-1 at home in these playoffs. The Thunder haven’t played a game 7 since September 2020, which means most of these guys haven’t been in this situation before. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 116.3 points on 45 percent shooting and allowing 105.3 points on 41.4 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.4 points and 6.6 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 19.2 points and 5.4 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Isaiah Hartenstein is grabbing 8.9 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 32.1 percent from beyond the arc and 77.6 percent from the free-throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 32.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 46.4 rebounds per game.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last eight games against Northwest Division opponents after losing as favorites.
• The Nuggets have lost each of their last five road games after winning as underdogs.
• The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last five road games after winning as underdogs.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in five of their last six games at Paycom Center following a loss.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

• The Nuggets have won six of their last nine playoff games as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a win.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight Western Conference Semifinals games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the Thunder’s last eight games.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.
• Luguentz Dort ranks 26th amongst qualified players for 3P% (41.2%) this season.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

• Michael Porter Jr. ranks 10th amongst qualified Forwards for three-pointers made Per Game (2.5) this season.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report 

The Nuggets will be without DaRon Holmes II. Hunter Tyson is questionable with an ankle injury. Aaron Gordon is questionable with a hamstring injury. Gordon has been crucial for the Nuggets in these playoffs, hitting two game winners and shooting 48.5 percent from the field and 38.2 percent from three. Jamal Murray is probable despite an illness, while Russell Westbrook is probable despite a hand injury. 

The Thunder will be without Nikola Topic.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

As I’ve said before, the Thunder are going to be favored in nearly every game because they’re the safest bet in sports. The Thunder are 58-31-4 ATS on the season. OKC is also the healthier team. The Nuggets lack depth as it is, so they’re in a world of trouble if Gordon can’t go, while Murray and Westbrook aren’t 100 percent. I’m going to assume Gordon will give it a go with it being a game seven. Either way, we’re getting a boatload of points with the Nuggets, the team that has the best player in Jokic.

The underdog has covered eight of the last 10 games between the Nuggets and Thunder. The Nuggets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog, which includes five outright wins. The Nuggets have covered four straight playoff games as an underdog. The Nuggets are also 15-4-1 ATS in their last 20 games when underdogs of six or more points. Give me the Nuggets and the points.