Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers Prediction NBA Picks 11/15/24

The Miami Heat have been in a rut as they’ve lost four of their last five games overall and they will be eager to bounce back in this one after coming up painfully short to the Pistons in a 123-121 overtime road defeat on Tuesday. Tyler Herro led the team with 40 points, eight assists, and four steals, Bam Adebayo tallied 20 points with 12 rebounds and three assists while Duncan Robinson and Jaime Jacquez Jr scored 14 points apiece. As a team, the Heat shot 46 percent from the field and 17 of 45 from the 3-point line as they showed plenty of fight to claw their way back from an 18-point deficit, only to give up the lead with just 1.0 seconds left in overtime thanks to a technical foul called on coach Spoelstra for calling a timeout that the team didn’t have.

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers have been in decent shape as they’ve won three of their past five games overall, but they are looking for a better result in this one after having their momentum stopped by the Magic in a 94-90 road defeat on Wednesday. Pascal Siakam led the team with 25 points on eight of 11 shooting, Bennedict Mathurin added 23 points with 12 rebounds while Myles Turner chipped in with 11 points, but no other player finished in double figures in scoring. As a team, the Pacers shot just 38 percent from the field and 10 of 30 from the 3-point line, but the Pacers actually led for a majority of the contest after holding the Magic to just 18 points in the first quarter before they went cold in the fourth quarter to allow the Magic to slip away in the end. 

Why the Indiana Pacers will win

• The home team has won seven of the Pacers’ last eight games.
• The Heat have lost four of their last five games.
• The Pacers have covered the spread in eight of their last nine night games at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as underdogs against Eastern Conference opponents.

The Heat will again be shorthanded with Jimmy Butler already ruled out, while the Pacers will again be missing Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. The Heat will again be missing their leader Jimmy Butler, but they have been relatively healthy compared to past seasons which is why their slow start to the season has been so concerning. Meanwhile, the Pacers were starting to get back on track before they ran into an improving Magic team in their last outing. It’s tempting to take the Heat with the points as you assume that they will turn things around sooner rather than later, but we just haven’t seen it yet, so I am more comfortable taking the Pacers with the short line at home.