Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction 9/21/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Washington Nationals and the New York Mets meet Sunday in MLB action from Citi Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Washington Nationals will send out Jake Irvin here and Irvin is 8-13 with a 5.76 ERA and 113 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Mets, Irvin is 0-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 18 strikeouts. Sean Manaea will get the nod for the Mets here and is 2-3 with a 5.40 ERA and 68 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Nationals, Manaea is 1-2 with a 3.49 ERA and 27 strikeouts.

Washington Nationals Recap

The Washington Nationals come into this game looking to add on to their 5-3 win over the Mets from Saturday’s matchup to sit at 63-92 this season. After this series, the Nationals will take to the road for a division series against the Atlanta Braves.

Nationals Snap Eight Game Slide

James Wood has 145 hits with 37 doubles and a team-high 27 home runs along with 89 RBIs and 15 stolen bases while also putting up 212 strikeouts. CJ Abrams has 145 hits with 18 home runs and 58 RBIs along with 34 doubles and 31 stolen bases while Luis Garcia Jr. has 28 doubles and 13 stolen bases of his own this season. Josh Bell also has 104 hits with 14 doubles, 20 home runs and 61 RBIs this season.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss to the Nats from Saturday’s matchup to sit at 80-75 on the year. After this set, the Mets will go on the road for a series against the Chicago Cubs.

Mets Looking To Salvage Series Rubber Match

Pete Alonso has 161 hits with 37 doubles, 37 home runs, 122 RBIs and a .272 batting average while Juan Soto has 145 hits with 19 doubles, 34 stolen bases, 42 home runs and 103 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 164 hits with 30 stolen bases along with 34 doubles, 27 home runs and 79 RBIs while Mark Vientos has 17 home runs and 58 RBIs, but also has 107 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 145 hits with 27 doubles and 24 home runs and 88 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 13 doubles and Luisangel Acuna has 15 stolen bases as well this season.

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets Betting Trends: September 21, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sean Manaea      Record this season: 2-3      ERA: 5.40
• Home Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Nationals: 0-2

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won 11 of their last 12 home games against the Nationals.
• The Nationals have lost 11 of their last 12 games after going to extra innings.
• The Mets have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 home games after going to extra innings.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against the Nationals.
• The Nationals have lost the first inning in three of their last four games at Citi Field.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jake Irvin      Record this season: 8-13      ERA: 5.76
• Road Record: 6-8
• Last 5 against Mets: 0-3

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last eight day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have won three of their last four games as underdogs against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last five road games following an extra innings win.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in each of their last three day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last six day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals’ last four road games following an extra innings win have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last nine home games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last five games at Citi Field.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last six games.
• Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Tyrone Taylor has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against the Nationals.
• Starling Marte has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Nationals after playing the previous day.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.397) this season.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Luis Garcia has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in nine of his last 10 appearances at Citi Field against opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (142).
• The Mets rank 4th in the league for walks this season (540).
• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for ERA this season (5.34).
• The Nationals rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.268).

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets Prediction

I’m on the over in this one. You have two starting pitchers in Sean Manaea and Jake Irvin that I really don’t trust to do their jobs in any given start, and also two bullpens that I don’t trust to be able to hold it down in the event that these starters actually come out and throw well. I think we’re headed for some runs in Sunday’s finale so give me the over here.