San Diego Padres vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 5/22/25 MLB Picks

The San Diego Padres and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Thursday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The San Diego Padres will send out Stephen Kolek for the start here, and Kolek is 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 15 strikeouts this season. Bowden Francis will get the start for the Blue Jays and is 2-6 with a 5.63 ERA and 36 strikeouts this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to bounce back from their 14-0 loss at the hands of the Blue Jays in Wednesday’s matchup to fall to 27-20 on the year. After this series, the Padres will head on the road for a weekend series against the Atlanta Braves.

Padres Lose 5th In A Row

Manny Machado has 54 hits, including a team-high 15 doubles and 7 stolen bases, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has 53 hits with a team-high 12 home runs and 27 RBIs, along with 8 stolen bases of his own this season. Luis Arraez has added 50 hits with 7 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs, and 15 RBIs, while Jackson Merrill’s added 30 hits with 4 home runs and 17 RBIs as well. Xander Bogaerts also has 9 doubles and 8 stolen bases this season. Gavin Sheets also has 7 doubles, 6 home runs, and 23 RBIs this season.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last four day games at Rogers Centre following a win.
• The Padres have won four of their last five day games against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in four of their last five road games following a road loss.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last five games as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Luis Arraez has recorded two or more hits in four of his last five appearances against the Blue Jays after playing the previous day.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Padres’ last four games as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances against the Blue Jays after playing the previous day.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has scored a run in five of the Padres’ last six day games.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T9th in the league in Home Runs (12) this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to complete the sweep after picking up the win over the Padres on Wednesday to improve to 24-24 on the year. After this series, the Blue Jays will head on the road for a series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Blue Jays Get Back To .500

George Springer has 38 hits and Bo Bichette has 59 hits, with Springer adding 5 home runs, a triple, 11 doubles, and 18 RBIs while Bichette has 15 doubles and 24 RBIs. Andres Gimenez has added 25 hits with 5 doubles and 3 home runs and 10 RBIs this season, along with 9 stolen bases, while Anthony Santander has 48 strikeouts so far this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also has 6 homers, 8 doubles, and 22 RBIs, while Springer also has a .264 batting average and 45 strikeouts up to this point in the year.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Padres have lost seven of their last eight games as favorites against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have won five of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as underdogs.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as road favorites against American League opponents following a road loss.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in each of the Blue Jays’ last two games as home underdogs against the Padres.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Blue Jays’ last four games against NL opponents.
• Daulton Varsho has scored a run in nine of his last 10 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Myles Straw has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Bo Bichette ranks T8th in the league in Hits (59) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Padres’ last eight day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Blue Jays’ last five day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

San Diego Padres vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

I’m backing the Blue Jays in this one. If there was a spot for the Padres to bounce back in this series, one would have to think it could come against Bowden Francis, who has been a home run magnet for opposing teams for much of the season. However, the Blue Jays have been getting it done in this series, and this may be more of a fade of the Padres and their lack of offense more than anything else. The Padres have scored just three runs in their last five games overall and have been shut out in back-to-back games. Hard to get behind the Padres in that form. Give me the Blue Jays here.