In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Phillies prediction for this MLB doubleheader on Wednesday, July 2, at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres (45-39, 20-25 Away) have been playing in a hot and cold form lately, but they managed to win back-to-back series against the Kansas City Royals and Washington Nationals before losing to the Cincinnati Reds. The Padres lost the opening game of the current series against the Phillies, failing to score in a 4-0 defeat despite having seven hits opposite Philadelphia’s six. Matt Waldron took the loss after allowing four runs on six hits with three strikeouts and six walks in 4.2 innings.

This year, the Padres average 4.11 runs per game (23rd in the MLB) on a .247/.314/.378 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 3.65 ERA (8th) and 1.22 WHIP (8th). Gavin Sheets leads the Padres with a .264 batting average, 13 home runs, and 49 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Padres in Game 1 of this doubleheader is Nick Pivetta, who is 8-2 in 16 starts this season, with a 3.36 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 91.0 innings. Dylan Cease will take the mound in Game 2; he has a 3-7 record in 17 starts this year with a 4.53 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 91.1 innings.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies (50-35, 27-14 Home) were on a four-series winning streak before suffering a sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros. The Phillies did respond with a win over the divisional rivals, the Atlanta Braves, and then opened this series against the Padres with a 4-0 victory. Zack Wheeler got the win after allowing no runs on six hits with ten strikeouts and no walks across 8.0 innings of work.

This season, the Phillies average 4.59 runs per game (12th in the MLB) on a .254/.329/.401 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Phillies’ staff has a 3.72 ERA (9th) and 1.26 WHIP (16th). Kyle Schwarber leads the Phillies with a .250 batting average, 25 home runs, and 57 RBI this season.

Mick Abel will take the mound for the Phillies in Game 1 of this doubleheader on Wednesday. The 23-year-old right-hander has a 2-1 record in five starts this year with a 3.47 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 23.1 innings. Christopher Sanchez will start Game 2; he has a 6-2 record in 16 starts this year with a 2.79 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 93.2 innings.

Why the Padres will beat the Phillies

The Padres have won five of their last six games as underdogs on the first leg of a doubleheader.
The Phillies have lost each of their last three home games against National League opponents following a home win.
The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last eight day games following a loss.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six day games against the Padres at Citizens Bank Park following a win.

Why the Phillies will beat the Padres

The Phillies have won seven of their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park.
The Padres have lost seven of their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park following a loss.
The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Phillies’ last five games at Citizens Bank Park.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against NL East opponents.
The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

Eight of the Padres’ last nine day games on the first leg of a doubleheader have gone OVER the total runs line.
Five of the Phillies’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight day games against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five games between the Padres and Phillies.

Matchup/League Facts

The Phillies rank 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.329).
The Phillies are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
The Padres rank 4th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.229).
The Padres rank T26th in the league for home runs this season (73).

Padres vs Phillies Prediction

The Phillies won eight of the previous ten H2H encounters, including seven of the last eight. I am backing the Padres to take Game 1 of the doubleheader because of the pitching matchup and the fact that they failed to score in the opening game of the series and will be desperate to improve. Nick Pivetta was far from impressive in June (a 4.71 ERA), but he did register two quality starts in his last three and shut the Nationals out in his most recent start. Also, Pivetta is way more experienced than rookie Mick Abel, so I am going with the Padres.

In Game 2, I am backing the Phillies. Christopher Sanchez has five consecutive quality starts, all in June, when he recorded a fantastic 1.85 ERA. Sanchez hasn’t allowed more than two runs in his previous six starts, and I doubt he will now against San Diego’s struggling offense. Dylan Cease, on the other hand, surrendered 3+ runs in six of his last eight starts and ten in his previous three, so I am backing the Phillies to get to him early on.

Oliver Zivic's Pick: Game 1: Padres ML / Game 2: Phillies ML