San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 10/1/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Padres vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, October 1st at the Wrigley Field in Game 2 of this NL Wild Card series, with the Cubs having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs finished the regular season with a 92-70 record and were placed first in the NL Central. The Cubs have a 51-31 home record and are 74-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-1 home win over the Padres, and are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Over is 6-3-1 in their last 9 games.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .430 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the team with two hits, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .667 batting average. Carson Kelly leads the team with one RBI and one home run.

Reliever Andrew Kittredge (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 4-3 record, 3.40 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres finished the regular season with a 90-72 record and were placed first in the NL West. The Padres have a 38-44 road record and are 69-88 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-3 road defeat by the Cubs, that ended their three-game winning streak. Under is 4-2 in their last 6 games.

The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .390 slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Xander Bogaerts has 2 hits for the Padres, adding one RBI and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .500 batting average.

Dylan Cease (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has an 8-12 record, 4.55 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

San Diego Padres @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: October 1, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Kittredge      Record this season (inc. playoffs): 4-3      ERA: 3.33
• Home Record: 3-2
• Last 5 against Padres: 0-0

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Padres have lost each of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have won each of their last four games.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Cubs’ last six games.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four playoff games.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 games as road underdogs.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in each of their last six Wednesday games against opponents that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Dylan Cease      Record this season: 8-12      ERA: 4.55
• Road Record: 1-9
• Last 5 against Cubs: 3-0

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last six day games against NL Central opponents following a loss.
• The Cubs have lost four of their last five playoff games as favorites.
• The Padres have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Wednesday games as favorites against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have won the first inning in three of their last four games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games.
• The Cubs have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five playoff games against NL West opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Cubs’ last six playoff games as home favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Padres’ last seven games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last four games between the Padres and Cubs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Padres’ last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Seiya Suzuki has hit at least one home run in each of the Cubs’ last five games.
• Ian Happ has recorded a Double in three of the Cubs’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 home appearances.
• Nico Hoerner ranks 6th in the league in Hits (178) this season.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has recorded a Double in three of the Padres’ last four road games.
• Dylan Cease has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
• Dylan Cease has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Jose Iglesias has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances with the Padres as underdogs.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Luis Arraez ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (181) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (405).
• The Cubs rank T3rd in the league for RBIs this season (771).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.225).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1197).

Padres vs Cubs Prediction

The Padres are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Cubs, but the Cubs are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Chicago. Their last three meetings have gone under the total.

In this Padres vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -115 home favorites. The Cubs have the 1-0 lead and are going for a bullpen game. It is hard to fade them, as the Padres are putting Cease on the mound, who has been terrible on the road, with a 5.58 road ERA, but he has been playing better lately. He has one earned run in three of his last four starts, and the Padres have a better bullpen and are better against right-handed pitching. I like the guests in a bounce-back spot today, so take the Padres on the moneyline in this one.