Red Sox vs Twins Prediction 07/28/2025 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Red Sox vs Twins prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 28th at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 57-50 this year after they won two out of three against the Dodgers by scores of 2-5, 4-2, and 4-3. In their game three win, Boston scored three runs in the fifth inning to take the lead and escape with the victory. The Red Sox recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Bregman, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs in the win. Boston started Buehler, who allowed four hits and three earned runs over 4.2 innings, while Bernardino picked up the win and Hicks got the save. 

Prior to that series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Phillies and two out of three against the Cubs. Boston has won three of their last four games and they are still third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 520 runs with a .251 batting average and a .322 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 20 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 15 home runs and 61 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Richard Fitts, who is 1-4 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 37.0 innings pitched this year. 

Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are 50-55 this season after they lost two out of three against Washington by scores of 1-0, 3-9, and 2-7. In their game three loss, Minnesota tied the game at two in the third inning, but they allowed the last five runs in the game for the loss. The Twins recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Larnach and Wallner, who both had one RBI in the loss. Minnesota started Sands, who allowed three hits and one earned run over 2.0 innings, while Adams allowed five earned runs for the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Twins lost two out of three against the Dodgers and two out of three against the Rockies. Minnesota has lost seven of their last ten games and they are currently fourth in the AL Central standings. The Minnesota pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .251 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 440 runs with a .241 batting average and a .312 on base percentage this season. Byron Buxton has led Minnesota with 23 home runs and 59 RBIs, while Trevor Larnach has added 13 home runs and 43 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Simeon Woods Richardson, who is 5-4 with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 76.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Twins will beat the Red Sox

• The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Twins have won five of their last six games at Target Field following a loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against American League opponents.
• The Twins have covered the run line in four of their last five home games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games against the Red Sox at Target Field.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against the Red Sox at Target Field.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Twins

• The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Red Sox and Twins.
• The Twins have lost each of their last three games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as home favorites against the Red Sox following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games against the Twins following a win.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Twins’ last six home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Red Sox’s last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last nine games as road underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Twins’ last seven games at Target Field.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Ryan Jeffers has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances against the Red Sox at Target Field.
• Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in two of his last three appearances against the Red Sox at Target Field.
• Byron Buxton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jarren Duran has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 Monday appearances against teams that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Twins rank 25th in the league for walks this season (310).
• The Twins rank 24th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.251).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (923).
• The Red Sox are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both home runs and batting average this season.

Red Sox vs Twins Prediction 

Boston picked up a very nice series win over the Dodgers on Sunday and they will look to catch the Yankees in the AL East standings. The Red Sox are 23-29 on the road this year, while the Twins are 29-22 at home. Minnesota is dealing with an injury to Buxton and they just lost a bad series to the Nats. The Twins are starting Woods Richardson, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Red Sox are going with Fitts, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four. I actually think we are going to see a lower scoring game here, so I like the under.