Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction 07/23/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, July 23rd at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 54-49 this year after they lost the first two games in this series by a score of 2-3 and 1-4. In their game two loss, Boston cut the deficit to 4-1 in the fourth inning, but couldn’t score any more runs in the defeat. The Red Sox recorded just four hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Refsnyder, who went 1-4 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. Boston started Fitts, who allowed six hits and four earned runs over 3.1 innings for the loss, while Murphy pitched two scoreless innings in relief.
 
Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Cubs, but did sweep the Rays in four games before that. Boston has lost four of their last five games, and they are currently third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.77 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 501 runs with a .253 batting average and a .323 on-base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 20 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 15 home runs and 59 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Lucas Giolito, who is 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 77.2 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 58-43 this season after they won game two by a score of 4-1 on Tuesday night. Philadelphia scored four runs in the first two innings, which was enough for the win, but they went scoreless over their final six at-bats. The Phillies recorded seven hits in the game, and they were led by Kepler, Castellanos, and Schwarber, who all had one RBI in the win. Philadelphia started Sanchez, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 9.0 innings in the complete game win. 

Prior to this series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Angels and two out of three against the Padres. Philadelphia has won three of its last four games, and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .244 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 461 runs with a .254 batting average and a .328 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 33 home runs and 75 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 12 home runs and 54 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Jesus Luzardo, who is 8-5 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 109.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Phillies

The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against the Red Sox following a home win.
The Red Sox have won five of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park following a road loss.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Red Sox at Citizens Bank Park following a home win.
The Red Sox have covered the run line in five of their last six games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park following a loss.
The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight Wednesday games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Red Sox’s last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Four of the Phillies’ last five games as favorites against the Red Sox have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last nine games as underdogs against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four night games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
Bryce Harper has recorded at least one Double in three of the Phillies’ last four night games.
Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances in night games.
Max Kepler has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with his team as a favorite against the Red Sox.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

Alex Bregman has hit a home run in three of his last four Wednesday appearances.
Lucas Giolito has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last nine night games against opponents that held a winning record.
Lucas Giolito has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.

Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction 

Boston comes into this contest looking to regain some of their momentum from before the All-Star break, but their offense has been ice cold in the five games since returning. The Red Sox are just 22-29 on the road this year, while the Phillies are 33-18 at home. Philadelphia continues to hold off the Mets by a half game in the NL East, and they are starting Luzardo, who has allowed 4, 0, and 5 earned runs in his last three starts. The Red Sox are going with Giolito, who allowed four earned runs in his last start, but he has been elite over the previous six starts. Take the Red Sox here.