Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction 07/21/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Phillies prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 21st at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 54-47 this year after they lost two out of three against the Cubs by scores of 1-4, 0-6, and 6-1. In their game three win, Boston trailed 1-0 for the majority of the game, but they scored six runs in the later innings to steal the win. The Red Sox recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Bregman and Abreu, who both had three RBIs in the win. Boston started Crochet, who allowed eight hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings for the win, while Whitlock picked up a hold.
 
Prior to that series, the Red Sox swept the Rays in four games and also swept the Rockies in three games. Boston has won 11 of their last 13 games, and they are currently third in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 498 runs with a .254 batting average and a .325 on-base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 20 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 15 home runs and 58 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Walker Buehler, who is 6-6 with a 6.12 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP over 78.0 innings pitched this year. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 56-43 this season after they lost two out of three against the Angels by scores of 5-6, 9-5, and 2-8. In their game three loss, Philadelphia allowed five runs in the second inning and never got back in the game for the blowout loss. The Phillies recorded six hits, and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by Kemp and Marchan, who both had one RBI in the loss. Philadelphia started Suarez, who allowed eight hits and six earned runs over 4.1 innings for the loss, while Ross allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Phillies lost two out of three against the Padres and two out of three against the Giants. Philadelphia has lost four of its last six games, and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 454 runs with a .255 batting average and a .328 on-base percentage this season. Kyle Schwarber has led Philadelphia with 32 home runs and 74 RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has added 12 home runs and 52 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 9-3 with a 2.36 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over 122.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Red Sox

The Phillies have won each of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park following a loss.
The Red Sox have lost 12 of their last 14 road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites following a home loss.
The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line each of their last four night games against teams that held a winning record.
The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last seven road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Phillies have won the first inning in three of their last four home games against American League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Red Sox’s last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Five of the Phillies’ last six home games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last seven games as underdogs against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Phillies’ last five games against AL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 10 home games.
Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two night games against opponents that held a winning record.
Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances at Citizens Bank Park against opponents that held a winning record.
Bryce Harper has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies’ last five games as favorites.
Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Phillies as favorites against AL opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

Jarren Duran has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Monday night appearances with the Red Sox as underdogs.
Ceddanne Rafaela has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games against NL East opponents.
Walker Buehler has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine road appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last three games against NL East opponents.

Red Sox vs Phillies Prediction 

Boston comes into this series after winning 11 of their last 13 games, and they are right in the middle of the race for the AL East. The Red Sox are 22-27 on the road this year, while the Phillies are 31-18 at home. Philadelphia hasn’t played its best in recent series, but they are still leading the competitive NL East. The Phillies are starting Wheeler, who has allowed one earned run or fewer in four of his last five outings. The Red Sox are turning to Buehler, who has allowed 3, 2, 4, 5, and 8 earned runs in his last five. I don’t trust Buehler or this Boston offense, so I will take the Phillies -1.5 here.