Rays vs Reds Prediction 07/25/2025 Picks

In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 25th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 53-50 this season after they lost two out of three against the White Sox by scores of 3-8, 4-3, and 9-11. In their game three loss, Tampa Bay led 4-0 in the first inning and 7-5 in the sixth, but they allowed six runs in the eighth for the loss. The Rays recorded 15 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Caminero, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the loss. TB started Bradley, who allowed four hits and four earned runs over 1.2 innings, while Kelly allowed five earned runs in relief for the loss. 

Prior to that series, the Rays won two out of three against the Orioles, but lost all four against the Red Sox before that. Tampa Bay has split their last six games and they are currently fourth in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 483 runs with a .258 batting average and a .322 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 26 home runs and 68 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 19 home runs and 50 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Zack Littell, who is 8-7 with a 3.53 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 122.1 innings pitched this season. 

Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds are 53-50 this year after they lost two out of three against Washington by scores of 8-10, 1-6, and 5-0. In their game three win, Cincinnati led 1-0 for most of the game and they pulled away in the eighth and ninth for the easy victory. The Reds recorded eight hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Fraley, Marte, and Trevino, who all had one RBI in the win. Cincinnati started Lodolo, who allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 9.0 innings for the complete game shutout. 

Prior to that series, the Reds won two out of three against the Mets and two out of three against the Rockies. Cincinnati has lost three of their last four games and they are currently third in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .236 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 470 runs with a .246 batting average and a .319 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 18 home runs and 65 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has added 11 home runs and 41 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Martinez, who is 8-9 with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 116.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Reds will beat the Rays

• The Reds have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Rays have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Reds have covered the run line in six of their last seven games as home underdogs.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven Friday night home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last six games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the last four games between the Rays and Reds have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Rays’ last 10 games as road favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 12 of the last 14 games between the Rays and Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Steer has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Reds as home underdogs against AL opponents.
• Will Benson has hit at least one home run in three of his last five home appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in each of the Rays’ last two road games against the Reds.
• Danny Jansen has recorded a Double in three of his last four road appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances after not playing the previous day.

Rays vs Reds Prediction 

Both of these teams come into this matchup with the exact same record, so this is a big series for each side in their respective wild card races. The Reds are 28-22 at home this year, while the Rays are 22-22 on the road. Tampa Bay is coming off of an ugly series against the White Sox, where they allowed 22 runs in three games. The Rays are starting Littell, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The Reds are going with Martinez, who has allowed two earned runs in two straight starts, but is very inconsistent. I don’t really trust Martinez on the mound, but I like how Cincinnati is playing at home. Take the Reds here.