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Rays vs Orioles Prediction 06/27/2025 Picks
Pick details
Tampa Bay (46-35) vs Baltimore (34-46)
June 27, 2025 at 07:05 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Baltimore +1.5 — Over/Under: +8.5
In this article we will formulate a Rays vs Orioles prediction for this MLB game on Friday, June 27th at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays are 46-35 this season after they swept Kansas City in three games by scores of 5-1, 3-0, and 4-0. In their game three win, Tampa Bay jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the fourth inning, which was more than enough in the shutout win. The Rays recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Lowe, Mangum, Caminero, and Lowe, who all had one RBI in the win. TB started Baz, who allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 8.0 innings for the win, while Fairbanks picked up the save.
Prior to that series, the Rays won two out of three against the Tigers and split four games with the Orioles. Tampa Bay has won five of their last six games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.49 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP and a .232 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 383 runs with a .257 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this season. Junior Caminero has led Tampa Bay with 20 home runs and 51 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 16 home runs and 43 RBIs for the Rays this year. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Ryan Pepiot, who is 5-6 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 94.2 innings pitched this season.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The Baltimore Orioles are 34-46 this year after they lost two out of three against Texas by scores of 6-0, 5-6, and 0-7. In their game three loss, Baltimore fell behind in the second inning and never recovered in the shutout loss. The Orioles recorded just one hit in the game and they were led by Cowser, who went 1-3 in the loss. Baltimore started Young, who allowed five hits and four earned runs over 4.0 innings for the loss, while Blewett allowed three earned runs in relief.
Prior to that series, the Orioles lost two out of three against the Yankees and split four games with the Rays. Baltimore has lost four of their last five games and they are currently last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.88 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and a .269 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 315 runs with a .236 batting average and a .302 on base percentage this season. Cedric Mullins has led Baltimore with 12 home runs and 35 RBIs, while Ryan O’Hearn has added 11 home runs and 30 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Tomoyuki Sugano, who is 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 83.2 innings pitched this year.
Why the Rays will beat the Orioles
The Orioles have lost seven of their last eight games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against American League opponents that held a winning record.
The Rays have won each of their last five games following a road win.
The Rays have covered the run line in 12 of their last 13 road games.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against American League opponents that held a winning record.
The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs.
The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Seven of the Orioles’ last eight games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Six of the Rays’ last seven road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Orioles’ last 12 night games at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Rays’ last eight games as road favorites.
Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts
Colton Cowser has hit a home run in three of the Orioles’ last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last eight night games against opponents that held a winning record.
Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
Danny Jansen has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Rays against AL opponents.
Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances.
Jonathan Aranda ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.412) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Orioles rank 28th in the league for hits allowed this season (737).
The Orioles rank 27th in the league for ERA this season (4.88).
The Rays rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (219).
The Rays are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
Rays vs Orioles Prediction
These two teams come into this series trending in opposite directions, as Tampa Bay is right behind the Yankees in the AL East. The Rays are 19-12 on the road this year, while the Orioles are 17-21 at home. Baltimore has allowed at least six runs in three of their last five games and they are starting Sugano, who has allowed three earned runs in four of his last five starts. The Rays are starting Pepiot, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. Take Tampa Bay to get the win here.