Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants Prediction 07/28/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Giants prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 28, at Oracle Park in San Francisco, California. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates (44-62, 13-37 Away) were swept by the Chicago White Sox, swept the Detroit Tigers, and then defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pittsburgh lost Game 1 to Arizona at home, but then won the next two. In a rubber match on Sunday, the Pirates secured a 6-0 victory. Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes led the offense with two runs apiece, while Paul Skenes got the win after allowing no runs on three hits with nine strikeouts and one walk across 6.0 innings of work.

This year, the Pirates average 3.35 runs per game (25th in the MLB) on a .229/.299/.339 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Pirates’ staff has a 3.75 ERA (9th) and 1.20 WHIP (3rd). Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with a .232 batting average, ten home runs, and 51 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Pirates is Mitch Keller, who is 4-10 in 21 starts this season, with a 3.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 125.0 innings.

San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants (54-52, 28-23 Home) were swept by the Toronto Blue Jays, beat the Atlanta Braves, and were swept by the New York Mets to start the second half of the season. San Francisco scored only five runs in three games against the Mets, including three in the most recent 5-3 defeat on Sunday. Matt Chapman hit a pair of homers and drove in all three runs for the offense, while Randy Rodriguez took the loss in a bullpen day for the Giants.

This season, the Giants average 4.12 runs per game (23rd in the MLB) on a .233/.311/.375 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Giants’ staff has a 3.63 ERA (6th) and 1.27 WHIP (17th). Wilmer Flores leads the Giants with a .248 batting average, 12 home runs, and 59 RBI this season.

Carson Whisenhunt will take the mound for the Giants on Monday. The 24-year-old left-hander has been called up from the minors and will get his first start in the MLB.

Why the Pirates will beat the Giants

• The Pirates have won each of their last four games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Giants have lost five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Giants have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 home games following a loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Giants have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games at Oracle Park against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Giants have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four home games against opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates’ last four night games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the last three games between the Pirates and Giants have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Giants’ last 10 Monday night games at Oracle Park.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Pirates’ last nine games as underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Giants rank 27th in the league for hits this season (813).
• The Giants rank 27th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.375).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for RBIs this season (346).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.340).

Pirates vs Giants Prediction

The Giants won seven of the previous ten H2H encounters, including three of the last four. However, I am going with the Pirates in this one because I don’t know anything about Carson Whisenhunt, and he will start for the first time in the majors. Mitch Keller, on the other hand, hasn’t allowed more than three runs in his previous eight starts and has been excellent in July, posting a 2.10 ERA. Keller registered four quality starts in a row, and I am backing him to get another one here. Back the Pirates.