Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction 7/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Pirates vs Guardians Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, July 17th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cleveland Guardians Preview

The Cleveland Guardians have a 51-46 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the AL Central. They have a 24-22 home record and are coming off a 5-2 road win against the Marlins. They will face the Twins and the Rays next.

The Cleveland Guardians have a .229 batting average this season, .310 OBP and .369 Slugging percentage. Cleveland’s pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Chase DeLauter is the team’s best hitter with a .278 batting average. Chase DeLauter leads the team in RBI with 46, while Angel Martinez adds a team-high 11 home runs.

Gavin Williams (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cleveland Guardians, and he has a 10-4 record, 3.81 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 50-47 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL Central. They have a 23-23 away record and are coming off a 14-5 home win against the Brewers. They will face the Yankees and the Cubs next.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .263 batting average this season, .342 OBP and .426 Slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Nick Gonzales is the team’s best hitter with a .308 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 64, adding a team-high 21 home runs.

Jared Jones (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he has a 1-1 record, 4.37 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cleveland Guardians Betting Trends: July 17, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Gavin Williams      Record this season: 10-4      ERA: 3.81
• Home Record: 4-1
• Last 5 against Pirates: –

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Pirates have lost 10 of their last 11 road games against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Guardians have won each of their last five night games against the Pirates following a road win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday games.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last five games.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six road night games.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 games against the Pirates.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Jared Jones      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 4.37
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Guardians: –

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Guardians have lost each of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Pirates have won each of their last six games against AL Central opponents.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 night games at Progressive Field following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six night games at Progressive Field against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in three of their last four games against AL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Guardians’ last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five games against AL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Guardians’ last nine Friday games against National League opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of Jared Jones’ last eight road appearances as a starter.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Chase DeLauter has hit a home run in three of the Guardians’ last four games.
• Gavin Williams has recorded a win in six of his last seven appearances against NL opponents.
• Brayan Rocchio has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last nine games as home favorites.
• Gavin Williams ranks T5th in the league for Wins (10) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Esmerlyn Valdez has hit at least one home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games.
• Jared Jones has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ryan O’Hearn has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a road underdog against AL opponents.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.308) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Guardians rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.369).
• The Guardians rank T29th in the league for RBIs this season (368).
• The Pirates rank T1st in the league for runs scored this season (516).
• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (886).

Pirates vs Guardians Prediction

The Guardians are 8-2 in their last 10 meetings against the Pirates, having won two of their last three meetings in Cleveland.  

In this Pirates vs Guardians Prediction, the Guardians are coming as -120 home favorites. Both teams have been in very good form lately, as they are 4-0 and 6-2 in their last 4 and 8 games respectively, but the Pirates’ offense has been scorching-hot lately, averaging 7 runs per game in their last 10 games and are the best hitting team against right-handed pitching in the month of July. Jared Jones has been solid for Pittsburgh, having given up just two runs in three of his last four starts combined, while Gavin Williams has given up at least two runs in each of his last seven games. Take the Pirates on the moneyline on the road for plus money in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates ML