Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 07/26/2025 Picks

The Arizona Diamondbacks and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Saturday in MLB action from PNC Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send out Merrill Kelly for the start here and Kelly is 9-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 118 strikeouts this season. In his career, Kelly is 3-0 with a 3.68 ERA and 17 strikeouts against Pittsburgh. Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Pirates here and is 4-9 with a 5.03 ERA and 74 strikeouts this season. In his career, Heaney is 0-1 with a 10.24 ERA and 7 strikeouts against the Diamondbacks.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to build on their 1-0 win over the Pirates on Friday to sit at 51-53 on the year. After this series, the Diamondbacks will head on the road for a series against the Detroit Tigers.

Diamondbacks Snap Three-Game Losing Streak

Corbin Carroll has 88 hits with 21 home runs, 50 RBIs, 13 triples and 18 doubles this season. Eugenio Suarez has also added 36 home runs and 87 RBIs while Geraldo Perdomo has 72 RBIs. Suarez has the unfortunate distinction of leading the Diamondbacks with 111 strikeouts so far this season. Carroll also has 13 stolen bases and Perdomo has a team-high 15 stolen bases as well this season. Ketel Marte’s added 20 home runs and 41 RBIs as well on the year and Lourdes Gurriel has 93 hits with 20 doubles, 12 home runs and 48 RBIs.

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last nine night games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Diamondbacks have won eight of their last nine night games against NL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 games against the Diamondbacks following a home loss.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games following a road win.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• James McCann has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Eugenio Suarez has hit at least one home run in three of the Diamondbacks’ last four games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in four of his last five road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Eugenio Suarez ranks T4th in the league in Home Runs (36) this season.

Pittsburgh Pirates Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of the Diamondbacks on Friday to sit at 42-62 on the year. After this series, the Pirates will take on the San Francisco Giants on the road.

Pirates Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped

Bryan Reynolds has 90 hits with 21 doubles, 10 home runs and 50 RBIs while also posting 114 strikeouts so far this season. Oneil Cruz has posted a team-high 16 home runs and 40 RBIs with 34 stolen bases while Isiah Kiner-Falefa has 80 hits with 12 doubles and 12 stolen bases. Cruz also has a team-high 124 strikeouts as well this season. Tommy Pham has 10 doubles and Andrew McCutchen has 82 hits with 15 doubles and KeBryan Hayes has 85 hits with 34 RBIs and 10 stolen bases.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won seven of their last eight games as home underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Diamondbacks have lost five of their last six games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as home underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has hit a home run in two of the Pirates’ last three games against NL West opponents.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded a Double in three of the Pirates’ last four games as underdogs.
• Andrew Heaney has recorded four or more strikeouts in 13 of his last 15 home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Ke’Bryan Hayes has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 17 home appearances after playing the previous day.
• Oneil Cruz ranks 1st in the league in Steals (34) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last four games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

I’m backing the Diamondbacks here. Andrew Heaney has started to get rocked in some of his recent outings and the Pirates don’t have a strong enough offense to be able to compensate for the damage that usually follows in an Andrew Heaney start. Even though the Diamondbacks are likely sellers at the trade deadline, I think that they’re still the better team and I’m rolling with the D-Backs here.