Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction 5/21/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Pirates vs Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, May 21st at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 25-24 this year after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 6-9 and 7-0. In game two, Pittsburgh took the lead in the second inning and they poured it on in the eighth for the blowout win. The Pirates recorded 15 hits in the game and they were led by Gonzales, who went 2-4 with two RBIs. Mlodzinski allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Sisk picked up a hold. Prior to this series, Pittsburgh lost all three against the Phillies, but did win two out of three against the Rockies before that. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 3.89 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .225 opponent batting average, while they have scored 242 runs with a .252 batting average and a .335 on base percentage. Oneil Cruz has led the Pirates with 10 home runs and 33 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 12 home runs and 31 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Braxton Ashcraft, who is 2-2 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 55.1 innings pitched this year. 

St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals are 28-20 this season after they lost game two by a score of 7-0 last night. St. Louis fell behind early in the game and their offense never got going in the shutout loss. The Cardinals recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Wetherholt, who went 2-4. McGreevy allowed 10 hits and three earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Svanson allowed four earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, St. Louis won two out of three against the Royals and two out of three against the Athletics. 

This season, St. Louis has a 4.21 ERA with a 1.39 WHIP and a .256 opponent batting average, while they have scored 217 runs with a .240 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Jordan Walker has led the Cardinals with 13 home runs and 34 RBIs, while Alec Burleson has added seven home runs and 34 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Dustin May, who is 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP over 48.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Cardinals have won 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have lost each of their last six day games against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium following a win.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last eight games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Thursday day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have won each of their last six games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The road team has covered the run line in five of the last six games between the Pirates and Cardinals.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Cardinals’ last 10 games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last three games as favorites against the Cardinals have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Pirates’ last eight road games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Cardinals’ last six home games against NL Central opponents.

Pirates vs Cardinals Prediction 

Pittsburgh snapped their losing streak with a shutout win on Wednesday night, but they have allowed 6+ runs in four of their last five games. The Pirates are 12-11 on the road this year, while the Cardinals are 13-12 at home. St. Louis has won three of their last five games, but they have been shutout in two of their last three. The Cardinals are starting May, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight outings, while Ashcraft has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. I think Ashcraft is the better pitcher, so I will back the Pirates here.

David Racey's Pick: Pirates ML