Phillies vs Pirates Prediction 5/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Phillies vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, May 17th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 23-23 this season after they won the first two games in this series by scores of 11-9 and 6-0. In game two, Philadelphia scored three runs in the first inning and never looked back in the shutout win. The Phillies recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Harper, who went 1-3 with one home run and three RBIs. Sanchez allowed six hits and zero earned runs over 9.0 innings for the complete game shutout. Prior to this series, Philadelphia won two out of three against the Red Sox and two out of three against the Rockies. 

This season, Philadelphia has a 4.31 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and a .267 opponent batting average, while they have scored 193 runs with a .235 batting average and a .303 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 20 home runs and 36 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added 11 home runs and 29 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 2-0 with a 2.55 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP over 24.2 innings pitched this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 24-22 this year after they lost game two by a score of 6-0 on Saturday afternoon. Pittsburgh trailed 5-0 after the second inning and they never had a chance in the ugly loss. The Pirates recorded six hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Gonzales, who went 2-3. Chandler allowed three hits and four earned runs over 3.0 innings for the loss, while Lawrence allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to this series, Pittsburgh won two out of three against the Rockies, but lost two out of three against the Giants before that. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 3.84 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .225 opponent batting average, while they have scored 229 runs with a .250 batting average and a .335 on base percentage. Oneil Cruz has led the Pirates with 10 home runs and 32 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 12 home runs and 31 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Paul Skenes, who is 6-2 with a 1.98 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP over 50.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won 16 of their last 17 games as favorites against NL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Phillies have lost five of their last six day games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as home favorites against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won four of their last five games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Phillies’ last six games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Pirates’ last six day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last five games as road underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last four day games.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Marcell Ozuna has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• Jared Triolo has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL East opponents.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit at least one home run in seven of the Phillies’ last nine games.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last seven Sunday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances at PNC Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction 

Philadelphia comes into this matchup looking to complete the series sweep and they have won three games in a row. The Phillies are 11-11 on the road this year, while the Pirates are 13-12 at home. Pittsburgh has lost three of their last four games and they have allowed 27 runs in those three losses. The Pirates are starting Skenes, who has allowed zero earned runs in four of his last five starts, while Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his four outings. Take the Pirates to bounce back with Skenes on the mound.

David Racey's Pick: Pirates ML