Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 5/17/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Boston Red Sox and Atlanta Braves meet Sunday in MLB action at Truist Park. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction. This article will include a Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Pick.

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 19-26 on the year and play the Twins and Royals next. The Boston Red Sox are batting .234 on the season, have a .333 OBP, and have a .356 slugging percentage. The Boston Red Sox pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Wilyer Abreu leads the Boston Red Sox with 51 hits and 19 RBI, while Ceddanne Rafaela and Willson Contreras have combined for 79 hits and 44 RBI.

Brayan Bello gets the ball for the Boston Red Sox, and he is 2-4 with a 6.46 ERA and 29 strikeouts this season. Bello is 1-1 with a 6.61 ERA and 12 strikeouts in his career against the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 31-15 on the year and play the Marlins and Nationals next. The Atlanta Braves are batting. 265 on the season and have a .327 OBP, and a .443 slugging percentage. The Atlanta Braves pitching staff has a 2.99 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Drake Baldwin leads the Atlanta Braves with 56 hits and 36 RBI, while Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson have combined for 99 hits and 62 RBI.

Grant Holmes gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves, and he is 2-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 34 strikeouts this season. Holmes is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 14 strikeouts in his career against the Boston Red Sox.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won each of their last seven home games following a loss.
• The Red Sox have lost five of their last six games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last four day games following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last three games following a win.
• The Red Sox have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Braves have won the first inning in each of their last five games as favorites against the Red Sox at Truist Park.
• The Braves have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against American League opponents.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won four of their last five games as road underdogs following a win.
• The Braves have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against AL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line each of their last six home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four day games at Truist Park against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last eight games between the Red Sox and Braves at Truist Park has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last six games against NL East opponents has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six games between the Red Sox and Braves at Truist Park.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Austin Riley has hit a home run in five of his last 10 appearances with the Braves as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight Sunday appearances with the Braves as favorites.
• Matt Olson ranks T6th in the league in Home Runs (14) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Willson Contreras has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances with the Red Sox as an underdog.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his 18 previous road appearances against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Braves rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).
• The Braves rank 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.443).
• The Red Sox rank 28th in the league for runs scored this season (166).
• The Red Sox rank T27th in the league for RBIs this season (159).

Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

The Red Sox are better than what they’ve shown up to this point, but I can’t get there on the road with Bello on the bump. Bello is a talented arm but he’s struggled this season with a 6.46 ERA and 1.74 WHIP through 39 innings. The Braves are ridiculous offensively and Holmes has been more trustworthy with a 4.35 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 41.1 frames. I’m just not excited to step in front of the Braves, the hottest team in baseball right now.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Atlanta Braves