Phillies vs Pirates Prediction 5/15/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Phillies vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 15th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 21-23 this year after they won two out of three against the Red Sox by scores of 2-1, 1-3, and 3-1. In game three, Philadelphia scored three runs in the eighth inning and escaped with the win. The Phillies recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Schwarber, who went 1-5 with one home run and two RBIs. Luzardo allowed four hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Keller got the win and Duran picked up the save. Prior to that series, Philadelphia won two out of three against the Rockies and two out of three against the Athletics. 

This season, Philadelphia has a 4.36 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP and a .268 opponent batting average, while they have scored 176 runs with a .233 batting average and a .299 on base percentage. Kyle Schwarber has led the Phillies with 18 home runs and 30 RBIs, while Bryce Harper has added 10 home runs and 24 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Aaron Nola, who is 2-3 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 42.0 innings pitched this year. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 24-20 this season after they won two out of three against the Rockies by scores of 3-1, 4-10, and 7-2. In game three, Pittsburgh scored the first six runs and cruised to the easy win. The Pirates recorded 12 hits in the game and they were led by O’Hearn, who went 3-4 with one home run and two RBIs. Mlodzinski allowed four hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Santana pitched a scoreless inning in relief. Prior to that series, Pittsburgh lost two out of three against the Giants, but did win two out of three against the Diamondbacks before that. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 3.71 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .222 opponent batting average, while they have scored 220 runs with a .250 batting average and a .337 on base percentage. Oneil Cruz has led the Pirates with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs, while Brandon Lowe has added 10 home runs and 28 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Braxton Ashcraft, who is 2-2 with a 2.77 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 48.2 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Phillies have lost each of their last six night games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• The home team has won eight of the last nine games between the Phillies and Pirates.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last nine Friday night home games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against NL Central opponents.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Friday games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last three games as home favorites against NL East opponents following a win.
• The underdogs have won six of the last eight games between the Phillies and Pirates at PNC Park.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as home favorites against the Phillies following a win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in eight of the Phillies’ last nine games at PNC Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates’ last four games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four games as road underdogs.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of Braxton Ashcraft’s last six appearances as a starter.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit at least one home run in five of his last eight appearances against NL East opponents.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of his 14 previous Friday appearances against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 9th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.315) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in five of the Phillies’ last six night games.
• Aaron Nola has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last seven Friday night appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last 13 Friday games.
• Brandon Marsh ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.340) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 3rd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.337).
• The Pirates are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
• The Phillies rank 29th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.268).
• The Phillies rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (8).

Phillies vs Pirates Prediction 

Philadelphia comes into this matchup after winning four of their last five games and they have allowed one run or fewer in three of their last four. The Phillies are 9-11 on the road this year, while the Pirates are 13-10 at home. Pittsburgh has alternated wins and losses over their last five games, but they have allowed 7+ runs in two of their last four. The Pirates are starting Ashcraft, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts, while Nola has allowed 3+ earned runs in four of his last five. Take the Pirates here.

David Racey's Pick: Pirates ML