Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction 6/28/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets meet Sunday in MLB action at Citi Field. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction. This article will include a Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Pick.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 46-37 on the year and play the Pirates and Royals next. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .235 on the season, with a .301 OBP and a .399 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Brandon Marsh leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 91 hits and 41 RBI, while Bryce Harper and Trea Turner have combined for 158 hits and 74 RBI.

Jesus Luzardo gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 6-4 with a 4.00 ERA and 110 strikeouts this season. Luzardo is 6-2 with a 3.27 ERA and 70 strikeouts in his career against the New York Mets.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 35-48 on the year and play the Blue Jays and Braves next. The New York Mets are batting .231 on the season, have a .298 OBP, and have a .375 slugging percentage. The New York Mets’ pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. Bo Bichette leads the New York Mets with 85 hits and 46 RBI, while Carson Benge and Juan Soto have combined for 146 hits and 69 RBI.

Cionel Perez gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 3-3 with a 4.99 ERA and 23 strikeouts this season. Perez is 0-0 with a 9.35 ERA and 5 strikeouts in his career against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight games as road favorites against the Mets following a loss.
• The Mets have won each of their last seven home games against the Phillies following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight home games against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as road favorites against the Mets following a loss.

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last eight road games following a loss.
• The Mets have lost seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last seven road games following a road loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games following a win.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three games as underdogs against NL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last three home games has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nineteen of the Phillies’ last 25 road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the Phillies’ last nine games as favorites.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Mets’ last four games as underdogs against NL East opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 10 home games.
• Carson Benge has hit a home run in two of the Mets’ last three games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Juan Soto ranks 7th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents.
• Bryce Harper has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 Sunday appearances against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Phillies as road favorites.
• Bryce Harper has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.584) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mets rank 28th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.375).
• The Mets rank 27th in the league for RBIs this season (321).
• The Phillies rank 28th in the league for doubles this season (111).
• The Phillies rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.301).

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

The Mets found their bats late in the game last night, and that could have a carryover effect. Luzardo has a 4.39 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, and he’s allowed 22 hits and 13 runs in his last 25.1 innings. Perez has a 5.29 ERA and a .246 allowed batting average in 17 innings at home. In 33 at bats agaisnt current Phillies, Perez is allowing a .394 batting average and a .429 on-base percentage. I expect a high-scoring game between these NL East rivals. Give me the over.

Randy Chambers's Pick: Over