Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 7/7/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Reds Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, July 7th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 41‑48 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL Central. They have a 20‑24 home record and are coming off a 3‑2 home win against the Orioles. They will face the Cubs and the Rockies next.

The Reds have a .228 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .388 Slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. Elly De La Cruz is the team’s best hitter with a .272 batting average. Sal Stewart leads the team in RBI with 61, adding a team‑high 17 home runs.

Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 5‑4 record, 3.88 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 50‑41 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 25‑20 road record and are coming off a 1‑15 road defeat against the Royals. They will face the Tigers and the Mets next.

The Phillies have a .238 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .404 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.25 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the team’s best hitter with a .305 batting average. Bryce Harper leads the team in RBI with 57, while Kyle Schwarber adds a team‑high 30 home runs.

Zack Wheeler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, and he has a 8‑1 record, 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Betting Trends: July 7, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott      Record this season: 5-4      ERA: 3.88
• Home Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The underdogs have won five of the last six games between the Phillies and Reds.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last six games between the Phillies and Reds.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Reds have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against the Phillies.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games against NL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zack Wheeler      Record this season: 8-1      ERA: 2.36
• Road Record: 4-1
• Last 5 against Reds: 2-2

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Phillies have won each of their last nine games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Reds have lost eight of their last nine home games following a win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games following a road loss.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six home games following a home win.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last four night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Phillies’ last five road games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Reds’ last six night games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of Zack Wheeler’s last nine road appearances as a starter.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Nathaniel Lowe has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances against the Phillies.
• Andrew Abbott has recorded six strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Nathaniel Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Trea Turner has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games against NL opponents.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances against the Reds after playing the previous day.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL opponents.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against the Reds.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (30) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Reds rank 29th in the league for hits this season (679).
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.228).
• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (877).
• The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Phillies vs Reds Prediction

The Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Phillies and have won their last two meetings in Cincinnati.

In this Phillies vs Reds Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -165 road favorites. The Phillies are coming off a disgraceful performance yesterday where they got blown out by 15-1 by the Royals. They are in a big bounce-back spot with Wheeler on the mound and his 2.36 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, going up against a struggling Reds team that is 2-6 in its last 8 games and ranks just 22nd in runs per game. Take the Phillies in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML