Orioles vs Guardians Prediction 07/21/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate an Orioles vs Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 21st at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 44-54 this season after they lost two out of three against Tampa Bay by scores of 1-11, 3-4, and 5-3. In their game three win, Baltimore had their lead cut to 4-2 in the fourth inning, but they added an insurance run in the sixth for the win. The Orioles recorded nine hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Henderson, who went 1-4 with two RBIs in the win. Baltimore started Rogers, who allowed five hits and two earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Bautista picked up the save. 

Prior to that series, the Orioles lost two out of three against the Marlins, but did win two out of three against the Mets before that. Baltimore has lost four of their last five games, and they are currently last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.96 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP and a .267 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 397 runs with a .239 batting average and a .304 on-base percentage this season. Cedric Mullins has led Baltimore with 13 home runs and 42 RBIs, while Jackson Holliday has added 13 home runs and 39 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Tomoyuki Sugano, who is 7-5 with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 99.1 innings pitched this season. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 48-50 this year after they won two out of three against the Athletics by scores of 8-6, 2-8, and 8-2. In their game three win, Cleveland led 5-0 in the fourth inning, and they cruised to the win. The Guardians recorded 12 hits in the game, and they were led by Fry, who went 2-5 with four RBIs in the win. Cleveland started Williams, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings for the win, while Smith allowed one earned run in relief. 

Prior to that series, the Guardians won three out of four against the White Sox and all three against the Astros. Cleveland has won eight of their last ten games, and they are currently second in the AL Central standings. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 371 runs with a .223 batting average and a .295 on-base percentage this season. Jose Ramirez has led Cleveland with 19 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Kyle Manzardo has added 15 home runs and 37 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Tanner Bibee, who is 5-9 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 109.0 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Guardians will beat the Orioles

The Orioles have lost eight of their last nine road games against AL Central opponents.
The Guardians have won 10 of their last 12 home games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five road games against AL Central opponents.
The Guardians have covered the run line in four of their last five games at Progressive Field against teams that held a losing record.
The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as road underdogs against AL Central opponents.
The Guardians have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 12 games at Progressive Field against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Orioles will beat the Guardians

The Guardians have lost five of their last six games as favorites following a home win.
The underdogs have won eight of the Orioles’ last 12 games.
The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against AL East opponents following a home win.
The Orioles have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against AL Central opponents following a road win.
The Guardians have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Guardians have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Guardians’ last four home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
Five of the Orioles’ last six games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Orioles’ last 11 night games against AL Central opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Guardians’ last 11 games as home favorites.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

Carlos Santana has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Orioles at Progressive Field.
Steven Kwan has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against AL opponents.
Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last nine games at Progressive Field against AL East opponents that held a losing record.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

Jordan Westburg has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Gunnar Henderson has recorded a Double in three of the Orioles’ last four games against AL opponents.
Colton Cowser has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Orioles vs Guardians Prediction 

Cleveland comes into this series looking to make a push in the AL Central standings, as they have won eight of their last ten games. The Guardians are just 22-24 at home this year, while the Orioles are 22-29 on the road. Baltimore was able to snap their losing streak on Sunday, but they have been the worst team in the AL East by a wide margin. The O’s are starting Sugano, who has allowed 3, 6, and 7 earned runs in his last three starts. The Guardians are going with Bibee, who has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last five. Take the over here.