Jul 4, 2025; New York City, New York, USA;  New York Mets second baseman Jeff McNeil (1) reacts after hitting a two run home run in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction 07/05/2025 Picks

Pick details

New York (48-40) vs New York (51-38)

July 5, 2025 at 04:10 PM EDT

The Line: Betting Odds: New York +1.5 — Over/Under: +9

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The New York Yankees and New York Mets meet Saturday in MLB action at Citi Field. Here’s a New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction. This article will include a New York Yankees vs New York Mets Pick.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 48-40 on the year and play the Mariners and Cubs next. The New York Yankees are batting .254 on the season, have a .338 OBP, and a .450 slugging percentage. The New York Yankees pitching staff has a 3.75 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Aaron Judge leads the New York Yankees with 118 hits and 71 RBI, while Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger have combined for 170 hits and 77 RBI. 

Carlos Rodon gets the ball for the New York Yankees, and he is 9-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 123 strikeouts this season. Rodon is 3-0 with a 1.15 ERA and 17 strikeouts in his career against the New York Mets.

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 51-38 on the year and play the Orioles and Royals next. The New York Mets are batting .244 on the season, have a .323 OBP, and a .416 slugging percentage. The New York Mets pitching staff has a 3.46 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Pete Alonso leads the New York Mets with 96 hits and 68 RBI while Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto have combined for 173 hits and 96 RBI.

Frankie Montas gets the ball for the New York Mets, and he is 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 10 strikeouts this season. Montas is 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 18 strikeouts in his career against the New York Yankees.

Why the New York Mets will win

The Yankees have lost eight of their last nine games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
The home team has won each of the Yankees’ last six games.
The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last 10 games between the Yankees and Mets at Citi Field.
The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
The Mets have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three games as favorites.

Why the New York Yankees will win

The Mets have lost each of their last seven games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 14 day games against American League opponents following a home win.
The Yankees have covered the run line in six of their last seven day games against National League opponents following a loss.
The Yankees have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games as underdogs against American League opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

Juan Soto has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against former teams.
Juan Soto has hit a home run in three of his last four home appearances against former teams.
Tyrone Taylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his nine previous appearances with his team as an underdog against the Yankees.
Juan Soto ranks T9th in the league in Home Runs (21) this season.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

Aaron Judge has hit a home run in four of his last five road appearances against the Mets.
Carlos Rodon has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances.
Carlos Rodon has recorded a win in each of his three previous appearances with his team as a favorite against the Mets.
Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.365) this season.

New York Yankees vs New York Mets Prediction

The Yankees are having a rough week, and it’s hard to back them with confidence. However, Rodon is one of the better pitchers in baseball this season with his 2.95 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, and he’s allowed just 14 earned runs in his last 34 innings. Rodon has a 2.67 ERA and .206 allowed batting average in 54 road innings. Montas has pitched just nine innings this season and was tagged by the Pirates in his last start. Montas has been all over the place the last couple of seasons. This is a spot where the Yankees should get back on track. Give me the Yanks on the road due to the better pitching matchup.

Randy Chambers's Pick: New York Yankees

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