New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 5/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles meet Monday in MLB action at Oriole Park. Here’s a New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction. This article will include a New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Pick.

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 26-15 on the year and play the Blue Jays and Mets next. The New York Yankees are batting .239 on the season and have a .333 OBP, and a .442 slugging percentage. The New York Yankees’ pitching staff has a 3.14 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. Cody Bellinger leads the New York Yankees with 42 hits and 28 RBI while Aaron Judge and Ben Rice have combined for 76 hits and 57 RBI.

Ryan Weathers gets the ball for the New York Yankees, and he is 2-2 with a 3.03 ERA and 45 strikeouts this season. This will be Weathers’ second career game against the Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 18-23 on the year and play the Nationals and Rays next. The Baltimore Orioles are batting .232 on the season and have a .319 OBP, and a .383 slugging percentage. The Baltimore Orioles pitching staff has a 4.74 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. Taylor Ward leads the Baltimore Orioles with 37 hits and 12 RBI while Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso have combined for 69 hits and 43 RBI.

Brandon Young gets the ball for the Baltimore Orioles, and he is 3-1 with a 4.35 ERA and 14 strikeouts this season. This will be Young’s first career game against the New York Yankees.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Yankees have lost eight of their last nine games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The home team has won 10 of the Yankees’ last 11 games.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the last four games between the Yankees and Orioles.

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won 14 of their last 15 games against the Orioles following a road loss.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last seven games against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Yankees have covered the run line each of their last seven games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games against the Orioles.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games against the Orioles.
• The Orioles have lost the first inning in five of their last six night games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees’ last six road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Orioles’ last four games has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the last nine night games between the Yankees and Orioles.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Yankees’ last eight night games against American League opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in three of the Orioles’ last five games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in each of the Orioles’ last nine night games.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Aaron Judge has hit a home run in three of the Yankees’ last four games as road favorites against AL opponents.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of the Yankees’ last nine games as favorites against the Orioles.
• Ben Rice ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.678) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Orioles rank 28th in the league for runs allowed this season (222).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for ERA this season (4.74).
• The Yankees rank 2nd in the league for RBIs this season (204).
• The Yankees rank 2nd in the league for slugging percentage this season (.442).

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

The Yankees are coming off a rough week, but they’ve shown enough overall this season to assume they’ll bounce back quickly. That probably starts here. The Yankees have owned the Orioles over the years and that includes wins in 14 of the last 18 meetings. The Orioles have underachieved up to this point and Young has been hittable with a 4.35 ERA and 1.45 WHIP through 20.2 innings. Weathers has given up the long ball through 38.2 innings, but he still has a respectable 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The Yankees are the better team, own the H2H and have the edge on the mound. The Yankees are the Orioles’ daddy. Give me the Yanks and the RL for max betting value.

Randy Chambers's Pick: New York Yankees -1.5