New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction 9/27/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Mets and the Washington Nationals meet Sunday in MLB action from Nationals Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send out Sean Manaea for the start here and Manaea is 6-7 with a 4.67 ERA and 141 strikeouts this season. DJ Herz will start for the Nationals and is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 4 strikeouts this season.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to add on to their 7-1 win over Washington last time out to sit at 74-87 this season. 

Mets Snap Two-Game Slide

Bo Bichette leads the Mets with a team-high 162 hits and 76 RBIs while adding 24 doubles, 2 triples, and 17 home runs so far this season. Carson Benge has added 160 hits with 21 doubles, 3 triples, 19 home runs, and 63 RBIs, while Juan Soto leads New York with a team-high 27 home runs alongside 106 hits, 11 doubles, 2 triples, and 68 RBIs on the year. Marcus Semien has contributed 105 hits with 14 doubles, a triple, 15 home runs, and 49 RBIs, while Brett Baty has logged 98 hits with 22 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs, and 56 RBIs. Francisco Alvarez has also chipped in 87 hits with 14 doubles, 16 home runs, and 42 RBIs for New York up to this point in the season.

Washington Nationals Recap

The Washington Nationals come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss to the Mets on Saturday to sit at 76-85 this season.

Nationals Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped

CJ Abrams leads the Nationals across the board with team highs in hits, home runs, and RBIs while adding 30 doubles and 3 triples so far this season. Daylen Lile has contributed 146 hits with 28 doubles, 8 triples, 22 home runs, and 88 RBIs, while James Wood has logged 132 hits with 30 doubles, a triple, 30 home runs, and 77 RBIs on the year. Jacob Young has added 103 hits with 22 doubles, 3 triples, 10 home runs, and 49 RBIs, while Nasim Nuñez has recorded 89 hits with 5 doubles, 3 triples, a home run, and 36 RBIs for Washington up to this point in the season.

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals Betting Trends: September 27, 2026

 

• Probable Starting Pitcher: DJ Herz      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 9.00
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Mets: 0-2

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Mets have lost eight of their last nine day games following a road win.
• The Nationals have won seven of their last eight day games against the Mets at Nationals Park following a loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against the Nationals following a win.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last five day games against the Mets following a loss.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five games at Nationals Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine day games at Nationals Park against NL opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sean Manaea      Record this season: 6-7      ERA: 4.67
• Road Record: 5-5
• Last 5 against Nationals: 0-2

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Nationals have lost each of their last seven day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have won nine of their last 10 games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against the Nationals at Nationals Park.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Nationals’ last six day games against NL opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Mets’ last five games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Nationals’ last four day games against NL East opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in four of Sean Manaea’s last five appearances as a starter.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• DJ Herz has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against NL East opponents.
• Jacob Young has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Daylen Lile has hit a home run in three of the Nationals’ last six home games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Nasim Nunez ranks 1st in the league in Steals (49) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Bo Bichette has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets’ last five games at Nationals Park against opponents that held a losing record.
• Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in day games.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in 26 of his last 27 appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 1st in the league for steals this season (178).
• The Nationals rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (815).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (208).
• The Mets rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.309).

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

I’m leaning towards the over here. Two teams that have been inconsistent against lefties in fairness, but two offenses that can also put runs up in bunches and two teams that have had porous bullpen play for the better part of the season. I think that we get some offensive fireworks to close out the regular season, so give me the over here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Over 8