New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction 9/25/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Mets and the Washington Nationals meet Friday in MLB action from Nationals Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets did not have a starting pitcher announced at the time that this article was posted. Andrew Alvarez will start for Washington and is 2-6 with a 3.17 ERA and 107 strikeouts this season.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at the hands of the Texas Rangers last time out to sit at 73-86 this season.

Mets Have Two-Game Win Streak Snapped

Bo Bichette leads the Mets with a team-high 162 hits and 76 RBIs while adding 24 doubles, 2 triples, and 17 home runs so far this season. Carson Benge has added 160 hits with 21 doubles, 3 triples, 19 home runs, and 63 RBIs, while Juan Soto leads New York with a team-high 27 home runs alongside 106 hits, 11 doubles, 2 triples, and 68 RBIs on the year. Marcus Semien has contributed 105 hits with 14 doubles, a triple, 15 home runs, and 49 RBIs, while Brett Baty has logged 98 hits with 22 doubles, a triple, 11 home runs, and 56 RBIs. Francisco Alvarez has also chipped in 87 hits with 14 doubles, 16 home runs, and 42 RBIs for New York up to this point in the season.

Washington Nationals Recap

The Washington Nationals come into this game looking to add on to their 4-2 win over Detroit last time out to sit at 75-84 this season.

Nationals Win Back-To-Back Games

CJ Abrams leads the Nationals across the board with team highs in hits, home runs, and RBIs while adding 30 doubles and 3 triples so far this season. Daylen Lile has contributed 146 hits with 28 doubles, 8 triples, 22 home runs, and 88 RBIs, while James Wood has logged 132 hits with 30 doubles, a triple, 30 home runs, and 77 RBIs on the year. Jacob Young has added 103 hits with 22 doubles, 3 triples, 10 home runs, and 49 RBIs, while Nasim Nuñez has recorded 89 hits with 5 doubles, 3 triples, a home run, and 36 RBIs for Washington up to this point in the season.

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals Betting Trends: September 25, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Alvarez      Record this season: 2-6      ERA: 3.17
• Home Record: 1-3
• Last 5 against Mets: 0-2

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Mets have lost eight of their last nine Friday games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have won six of their last eight games as home underdogs.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in each of their last five games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in three of their last four games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games against the Mets.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Nationals Park against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last eight games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have lost each of their last seven games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 road games following a loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six home games.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games as road favorites.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Mets’ last seven games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Nationals’ last seven night games against NL opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Nationals’ last five games against NL opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in 10 of the Mets’ last 12 night games at Nationals Park.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Daylen Lile has hit a home run in three of the Nationals’ last four home games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Andrew Alvarez has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances.
• CJ Abrams has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine home appearances after not playing the previous day.
• James Wood ranks 5th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.385) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in each of his last four appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 25 appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 1st in the league for steals this season (176).
• The Nationals rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (807).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (205).
• The Mets rank 28th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.309).

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

I’m on the Mets in this one. I get the case to be made for the Nats at home, but the Mets have been solid against lefties down the stretch which isn’t the best news for Andrew Alvarez and I’ve personally had trust issues with this Nationals bullpen all season long. I think the Mets draw first blood in this series so give me New York.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: NY Mets -135