New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 9/9/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Tuesday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will send out Sean Manaea for the start here and Manaea is 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA and 59 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Phillies, Manaea is 2-1 with a 4.44 ERA and 27 strikeouts. Ranger Suarez will get the nod for the Phillies here and is 11-6 with a 2.89 ERA and 128 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Mets, Suarez is 3-1 with a 3.10 ERA and 23 strikeouts.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back from their 1-0 loss at the hands of the Phillies from Monday’s series opener to sit at 76-68 this season. After this series, the Mets will head home for a series against the Texas Rangers.

Mets Drop Three In A Row

Pete Alonso has 149 hits with 37 doubles, 33 home runs, 113 RBIs and a .269 batting average while Juan Soto has 132 hits with 17 doubles, 29 stolen bases, 38 home runs and 93 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 153 hits with 28 stolen bases along with 32 doubles, 26 home runs and 77 RBIs while Mark Vientos has 16 home runs and 56 RBIs, but also has 94 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 135 hits with 27 doubles and 22 home runs and 80 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 13 doubles and Luisangel Acuna has 14 stolen bases as well this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Mets from Monday’s opener to sit at 84-60 this season. After this series, the Phillies will take on the Kansas City Royals in an interleague series at home.

Phillies Win 7 Of Their Last 10

Nick Castellanos has 128 hits with 25 doubles including 16 home runs and 63 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 129 hits with a team-high 49 home runs and 120 RBIs but also has a team-high 169 strikeouts as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 11 stolen bases, 30 doubles, 24 home runs and 67 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 179 hits with 7 triples, 15 home runs, 69 RBIs and a team-high 36 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 18 doubles and Bryson Stott has 20 doubles, 3 triples, 10 homers and 60 RBIs while Stott also has 23 stolen bases as well this season.

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: September 9, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ranger Suarez      Record this season: 11-6      ERA: 2.89
• Home Record: 5-2
• Last 5 against Mets: 3-0

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last seven road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The home team has won 12 of the last 13 games between the Mets and Phillies.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the last five games between the Mets and Phillies.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in 14 of their last 16 games as home favorites against NL East opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sean Manaea      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 5.60
• Road Record: 0-2
• Last 5 against Phillies: 2-1

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won five of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites against the Mets following a win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine home games against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last five night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Phillies’ last four home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Mets’ last eight road games against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four home games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Ranger Suarez has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents.
• Ranger Suarez has recorded six or more strikeouts in six of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Brandon Marsh has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (49) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five games as road underdogs.
• Sean Manaea has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances against NL East opponents.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last seven games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.400) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (1310).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (393).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (128).
• The Mets rank 3rd in the league for walks this season (511).

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

I’m on the Phillies here. The Mets are hitting lefties better between these two teams side-by-side as of late, but I feel like the Mets have a disadvantage here with Sean Manaea as the starter here having to match zeroes with Ranger Suarez, who has been the far more consistent option so far this season. I think the Phillies get it done here once again so give me Philadelphia.