New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction MLB Picks 10/3/24

In this article we will formulate a New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, October 3rd at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Let’s take a look at the prediction for game three in this NL Wild Card series. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets were able to win game one of this series on Tuesday, but they blew a late lead on Wednesday in their game two loss. New York won game one by a score of 8-4, as they scored five runs in the fifth inning. On Wednesday, the Mets led 3-2 in the eighth inning, but allowed three runs in the eighth for the loss. Prior to the postseason, the Mets split a doubleheader with the Braves, lost two out of three against the Brewers, and lost one game against the Braves. 

The New York pitching staff had a 3.96 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average this year. The Mets offense scored 768 runs with a .246 batting average and a .319 on base percentage during the regular season. Pete Alonso hit .240 with 34 home runs and 88 RBI’s for the Mets this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers were able to fight off elimination on Wednesday night with a come from behind victory in game two, and they will look for the series win here. Milwaukee fell apart in the fifth inning in game one and they were trailing in game two, but they came up with a huge eighth inning to get the win. Prior to the postseason, the Brewers won two out of three against the Mets, won two out of three against the Pirates, and lost three out of four against the Diamondbacks. 

The Milwaukee pitching staff had a 3.65 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average during the regular season. The Brewers offense scored 777 runs with a .248 batting average and a .326 on base percentage this year. Willy Adames hit .251 with 32 home runs and 112 RBI’s for the Brewers this season.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Tobias Myers, who is 9-6 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP over 138 innings pitched this year. Myers has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Jose Quintana, who is 10-10 with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 170.1 innings pitched this season. Quintana has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. 

Why the Mets will beat the Brewers

• The Mets have won each of their last six Thursday games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The Brewers have lost four of their last five playoff games as favorites.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven Thursday games as underdogs.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven home playoff games.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in six of their last eight games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five playoff games as home favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last four playoff games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Brewers’ last five playoff games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Brewers’ last three home games.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Rhys Hoskins has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four playoff appearances against NL East opponents.
• Brice Turang has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against the Mets.
• Jackson Chourio has recorded at least one Single in seven of the Brewers’ last eight games against the Mets.
• Jackson Chourio has scored at least one run in six of the Brewers’ last seven games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• Christian Yelich has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jackson Chourio has recorded at least one total base in each of the Brewers’ last eight games against the Mets.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against the Brewers after playing the previous day.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 22 games against NL opponents.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last 12 road games.
• Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of his last nine Thursday appearances against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Jose Quintana has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last three appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Harrison Bader has hit a home run in three of his last four road playoff appearances after playing the previous day.
• Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets’ last 22 games against NL opponents.
• Jose Quintana has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Milwaukee Brewers rank T4th in the league for triples this season (33).
• The Milwaukee Brewers rank 4th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.326).
• The New York Mets rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (1232).
• The New York Mets rank 5th in the league for strikeouts this season (1455).

New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 

Both of these teams have won one game in this series and they will look to advance to the next round with a win here. Milwaukee should have plenty of momentum in this game after their comeback on Wednesday night, but the Mets have also hit the ball very well over the last four days. Both of these pitchers have been pretty good recently, but I give the advantage to Quintana, who has been fantastic in his last six starts. Take the Mets here.