New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction 5/23/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Mets and the Miami Marlins meet Saturday in MLB action from LoanDepot Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will trot out Freddy Peralta for the start here and Peralta is 3-3 with a 3.31 ERA and 54 strikeouts this season. Max Meyer will start for the Marlins and is 4-0 with a 2.85 ERA and 60 strikeouts this season.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at the hands of the Marlins on Friday to sit at 22-29 this season. After this series, the Mets will head home for a series against the Cincinnati Reds.

Mets Lose 3rd In A Row

Going into Friday, Luis Robert Jr. has 19 hits including 2 home runs and 8 RBIs while Juan Soto has 38 hits with 4 doubles, 9 home runs and 20 RBIs. Brett Baty has 36 hits with 7 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs and 21 RBIs while Francisco Lindor has 21 hits with 2 doubles and a pair of triples as well. Marcus Semien also has 41 hits with 7 doubles, 3 home runs and 18 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 46 hits with 6 doubles, 5 home runs and 27 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 27 hits with 5 doubles and 4 home runs this season.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to build on Friday’s win over the Mets to improve to 23-29 this season. After this series, the Marliners will head on the road for a series against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Marlins Snap Three-Game Skid

Entering Friday, Xavier Edwards has 60 hits with 8 doubles, 3 triples, 6 home runs and 19 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 68 hits with 13 doubles, 2 triples, 4 homers and 21 RBIs. Agustin Ramirez has 26 hits with 5 doubles, 2 home runs and 14 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 44 hits with 4 doubles, 9 home runs and 42 RBIs. Connor Norby has 33 hits with 9 doubles, 4 home runs and 14 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 25 hits with 6 doubles, 4 homers and 20 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 37 hits with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 3 home runs and 14 RBIs this season. 

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: May 23, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Max Meyer      Record this season: 4-0      ERA: 2.85
• Home Record: 3-0
• Last 5 against Mets: 1-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs following a road loss.
• The favorites have won each of the Marlins’ last seven games at LoanDepot Park.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games against NL East opponents.
• The favorites have covered the run line in five of the Marlins’ last six games.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games against the Mets.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta      Record this season: 3-3      ERA: 3.31
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Marlins: 1-3

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Marlins have lost each of their last five games as favorites against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have won each of their last five games as underdogs against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against the Marlins.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have won the first inning in four of their last five games at LoanDepot Park.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last six Saturday games against the Marlins at LoanDepot Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Marlins’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Nine of the Mets’ last 10 day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last 10 day games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the last eight games between the Mets and Marlins.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Xavier Edwards has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last five games as home favorites.
• Otto Lopez has recorded two or more hits in each of the Marlins’ last four day games.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (68) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit at least one home run in four of the Mets’ last five games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances with his team as a road underdog .
• Freddy Peralta has recorded six or more strikeouts in 12 of his last 13 appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (62).
• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (11).
• The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.356).
• The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (67).

New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. I think Peralta has a good start here as he’s really the only decent starter the Mets have that’s not injured right now, while the Marlins have this season’s ace on the bump in Max Meyer, who has been racking up strikeouts left and right and I think he does so again here. Give me the under in another low-scoring battle.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 8