MLB Player Prop Picks 6/10/25 MLB Picks (National League Pitchers)

Mitch Keller Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates 6:40 PM EST

Mitch Keller has served as an anchor in the Pirates’ rotation, posting a 1–8 record, a 4.13 ERA, 61 strikeouts, and a 1.27 WHIP across 13 starts and 76.1 innings. Though his win-loss record doesn’t reflect it, his strong performances have sometimes been offset by inconsistent run support from the Pirates’ offense. He’s coming off his worst start of the season, where he allowed 6 earned runs against the Houston Astros. I like Keller to bounce back in this one, going against a lineup like the Marlins. The Marlins have been terrible on the road this season, and after a bad start, this is a great opportunity for Keller to get back on track. 

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Andrew Abbott Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians 6:40 PM EST

Abbott has had a great start to this season, delivering outstanding results across 10 starts, posting a 5–1 record with a phenomenal 2.18 ERA, 59 strikeouts, and a 1.06 WHIP over 53.2 innings. Abbott’s May was historic, he posted an incredible 0.55 ERA over six starts, the lowest single-May mark since Nolan Ryan in 1984. Abbott is coming off his worst start of the season, giving up 5 earned runs to the Brewers, but has a much more favorable matchup going against the Guardians in this one. The Guardians haven’t been able to have any success against lefties this season. Let’s take Abbott to return to his dominant ways in this one. 

Dylan Cease Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Los Angeles vs San Diego Padres 9:40 PM EST

Dylan Cease has been solid when it comes to a strikeout perspective; however, his 1–5 record and 4.72 ERA reflect a mix of dominance and bad outcomes. We’ve seen Cease allow 3+ earned runs in his last 4 starts. Now he has to go against this elite Dodgers lineup, which is arguably the best in the league. With the way Cease has been pitching, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets hit up early in this game.

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above