MLB Player Prop Picks 6/11/25 MLB Picks (American League Pitchers)

Zach Efflin Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers 4:35 PM EST

Efflin has made 8 starts, compiling a 5–2 record, with a 4.47 ERA over 46.1 innings. He’s struck out 31 batters and issued 6 walks, resulting in a solid 1.12 WHIP. Looking at recent performance, Eflin posted a 3.00 ERA in April, before a rougher May saw his ERA rise to 5.64. There’s been a bit of a consistency issue with Efflin this season. He’s given up 15 earned runs in his last 4 starts. Now he has to face a Tigers lineup that has been strong at the plate. This is a spot I want to fade Efflin. 

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Kyle Hendricks Over 5.5 Hits Allowed

Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels 4:07 PM EST

Kyle Hendricks has made 12 starts, accumulating a 3–6 record with a 5.40 ERA across 65.0 innings, accompanied by 41 strikeouts and a 1.32 WHIP. He’s allowed 6+ hits in 4 of his last 5 starts. Hendricks is way past his prime, and as his career progresses, he continues to look worse. This Athletics team can’t pitch, but they’ve had success hitting the ball this season. I expect them to get after Hendricks early and often in this game.

Logan Allen Under 5.5 Hits Allowed

Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians 1:10 PM EST

Logan Allen has made 12 starts, posting a 3–4 record with a 4.42 ERA across 55 innings, accompanied by 40 strikeouts and a 1.58 WHIP. While run support and early-season variability have impacted traditional stats, Allen has shown flashes of promise. He has a great matchup in this one, going against the Reds, who have been horrible against lefties this season. The Reds come into this one having a .214 batting average against lefties this season. This is a great spot to back Allen.

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above