MLB Player Prop Picks 6/9/25 MLB Picks (American League Pitchers)

Jose Berrios Under 2.5 Earned Runs

Toronto Blue Jays vs St Louis Cardinals 7:45 PM EST

José Berríos has been a steady force in the Blue Jays’ rotation, accumulating a 2–2 record with a solid 3.67 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 76.0 innings pitched across 13 starts. Hitters are averaging 90.0 mph exit velocity against him, with a 41.3% hard-hit rate. Berrios has allowed less than 3 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts. After a slow start to the season, it seems like Berrios is just getting better as the season progresses. St. Louis has been streaky at the plate this season. I expect Berrios to be serviceable in this one and limit the runs. 

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Emerson Hancock Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Seattle Mariners vs Arizona D-Backs 9:40 PM EST

Emerson Hancock has made 10 starts, posting a 2–2 record with a 5.19 ERA, 38 strikeouts, and a 1.47 WHIP across 50.1 innings. While his overall numbers suggest inconsistency, a glance at his recent outings reveals stabilizing form—over his last seven starts, he has a 4.42 ERA in 38.2 innings, including six strikeouts over 5.2 shutout innings against Baltimore on June 4th. Even though Hancock has shown improvements as of late I still can’t forget how he looked to start the season. With him pitching in hitter-friendly Chase Field in this one, I think we see Hancock return back to earth. Also, the D-Backs possess one of the better lineups in the league.  

Shane Baz Over 2.5 Earned Runs

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox 7:10 PM EST

Shane Baz has made 12 starts and owns a 5–3 record with a 4.96 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and 60 strikeouts over 65.1 innings. Hitters average 90.5 mph exit velocity against him, producing a 43% hard-hit rate. It just hasn’t been the start of the season that Baz has hoped for. We’ve seen him allow 3+ runs in 4 of his last 5 starts. Baz is a guy I just can’t trust right now, especially pitching in a ballpark like Fenway Park. I expect these Red Sox bats to get at him early and often in this game.

Brad Francis's Pick: See Above